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The number of people who become seriously ill or die prematurely from diseases such as high blood pressure and obesity has increased by 50 percent since 2000, and aging and lifestyle-related diseases are having a huge impact on overstretched health services. It highlights the issues.
The findings mean that health systems must address “metabolic risk factors” such as high blood sugar and fat levels, a move away from an era when infectious diseases and poor maternal and child health were among the biggest threats. It marks a major change in the times. This has led to a sharp increase in “non-communicable” diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
The study, published Thursday by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), also found that life expectancy is likely to increase by nearly five years to just over 78 years between 2022 and 2050. In sub-Saharan Africa, it is helping to foster convergence in longevity between rich and poor regions.
The expected global increase will be significantly slower than in decades before the coronavirus pandemic. Research data shows that global life expectancy increased by 7.8 years between 1990 and 2019, and by 19.5 years between 1960 and 1990. The number of years lived in good health is also predicted to increase, but at a slower pace: by 2050, it is expected to increase by 2.6 years.
The study found that between 2000 and 2021, the number of years of healthy life lost due to poor health and premature death due to metabolic-related factors increased by 49.4 percent. Poor health among people aged 15 to 49 is increasingly attributable to these factors, the researchers noted.
In a Lancet article published alongside the findings, IHME director Professor Christopher Murray said that factors such as rising obesity, rising substance use disorders, and increased climate-driven pollution and transmission of infectious diseases Future trends may be completely different.” Change will have a huge impact on public health.
Murray suggested that sustaining progress will require “the right health care workers, policymakers adapting to new circumstances, and proactive strategies to deal with new threats as they emerge.” .
The COVID-19 pandemic's reversal of trends in life expectancy comes at a time when delays in emergency care and treatment of chronic conditions were common, and “a global “It was surprising given the almost continuous pace of progress,” he noted.
He added that while the full impact of the pandemic will likely take years to become clear, it was a “clear reminder that health progress is precarious.”
The study found that the greatest reductions in disease burden were related to maternal and child health and unsafe water, sanitation and handwashing. These numbers suggest that public health measures and humanitarian programs in poor countries have been successful over the past three decades, the researchers said.
Murray told the Financial Times that “we've made progress apart from coronavirus”, in part due to investment in preventative measures. This is especially true for the poorest countries through international efforts such as the Gavi Vaccine Alliance and the Malaria Control Programme.
But this precautionary approach was less pronounced in “the middle-income and upper-income world,” he said. “There has been progress, but not much progress. [anticipation of] “Where are we going and trying to stay ahead of change in these countries?” he said.
Data visualization by Keith Fray