Will the rise of generative AI response engines cause search engine traffic to websites to decline by 25% by 2026? That's what technology research and consulting firm Gartner predicts.
why do we care? SEO and PPC are extremely valuable. Search traffic can lead to revenue and profit (whether you convert that traffic into leads, sales, or the types of conversions that matter to your brand).
With the rise of generative AI, Google's search-generated experiences (and other AI-powered answer engines) could “steal” traffic that would previously go to your website or significantly drive up costs for advertisers. There are legitimate concerns that there is. Many also believe that ChatGPT is already stealing market share from Google.
prediction. Gartner believes people will turn to generational AI conversational assistants (ChatGPT, Claude, etc.) rather than traditional search engines (Google, etc.). If this is true, it would mean a major shift in organic and paid search marketing strategies. Gartner predicts:
- “By 2026, traditional search engine volume will decline by 25% and search marketing will lose market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents.”
but. The predictions (which were shared in today's press release, based on full research, subscription required) are just speculations. Gartner's forecasts are typically informed, but still best guesses.
Respected analyst firms are rarely called out to be wrong. Because people rarely go back and check. As a recent example, Gartner made an astonishing prediction that his 50% of consumers would limit their social media involvement or abandon social media by 2025; I moved it back a little.
Predictions for 2028. Gartner previously predicted that “organic search traffic will decline by more than 50% as consumers embrace AI-powered generated searches.” This is based in part on the following findings (in August 2023 he surveyed 299 consumers):
- 79% of respondents expect to use AI-powered search within the next year.
- 70% of consumers had at least some trust in generated AI search results.
In response to this prediction, Gartner advised brands to prepare for disruption:
- “Marketing leaders whose brands rely on SEO should consider allocating resources to testing other channels to diversify,” said Emily Weiss, senior principal scientist at Gartner.
Not guaranteed. Gartner may turn out to be right – we will definitely find out in 2026. However, he highly recommends reading Gartner's predictions in the same way you would read correlation studies of ranking factors published by SEO tools/platforms. It's interesting, perhaps informative, and directionally helpful, but it's not impeccable.
