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The profile of globally mobile students has changed over the past two decades, and current and future discussions about international higher education need to take this into account. What remains constant is the value of data and long-term global mobility trends, which can help study the challenges and opportunities facing host destinations.
Since 2001, Project Atlas has focused on comparable data for the top international student hosting countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. By analyzing trends in international student mobility, the student capacity of universities in each country, and the impact of external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic on international higher education, Project Atlas Provides the necessary background to compare and contrast.
What is your chosen destination?
According to an OECD report, 2.1 million students were on the move worldwide in 2001. Education overview. That total has grown to more than 6 million people over 20 years, but growth has been relatively stagnant over the past two years due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been uneven, hitting some countries more adversely than others, such as Australia, New Zealand and China.
As reported in Project Atlas, the recovery in international student numbers in 2022 and 2023, particularly in the US, UK, and Canada, indicates that global student numbers may accelerate again. I am.
However, in a turbulent world, data are constantly changing, and it remains to be seen whether we will return to the 5% annual global growth rate experienced before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The composition of top hosts for international students has also changed. The United States and the United Kingdom remain the main receiving countries for international students. In 2001, the US and UK accounted for 28% and 11% of the world's total mobile students, respectively. According to Project Atlas, in 2023, in the US this figure has decreased to 17%, and in the UK it has stabilized at 11%.
Competition from other English-speaking host countries such as Canada, which accounts for 10% of the global pie, is increasing. Add to this traditional European host countries Germany and France, and the top five host countries account for 50% of all mobile students in the world.
The ability of some destinations to accommodate more international students remains in question. In 2015, Project Atlas reported that at least five of the top 10 host countries are countries where international students already make up between 10% and 20% of the total university population.
As the number of students moving around the world increases, more international students are entering these tertiary markets. By 2022, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom will all have international students exceeding 20% ​​of their total higher education total. The United States is an outlier here, as international students make up only 6% of the country's total university population.
Push and pull factors
When prospective students decide where to study, multiple factors influence their decision. For emerging student markets such as Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, the key factors are the rapidly growing older-age population and the low capacity of local university systems to meet their needs. As these students look beyond their borders, further support is essential to ensure they are successful in applying to, pursuing and completing their studies abroad.
We are already seeing an increase in students from India choosing to study abroad in Canada, the UK and the US. However, it was also noted that Indian students mainly study for postgraduate degrees and only wait for short-term study abroad after completing their undergraduate degree.
This is in stark contrast to, for example, the large increase in Chinese students that the United States has experienced over the past decade, as these students were more likely to earn a bachelor's degree.
A student's choices about when to study and whether to study abroad for a short or long period of time will affect the pipeline to the host institution. Challenges abound regarding other “driving factors,” such as the realities of conflict and geopolitics.
One of the fastest growing mobile populations are students from conflict-affected regions such as Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Russia who wish to continue their higher education elsewhere. Mental health support for these students is essential, as are options for students to continue their studies if they are unable to return home.
Finally, health and safety continues to play a key role as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and travel restrictions continue to impact student mobility in Asia, particularly China.
For host destinations, “pull factors” are well-studied. The quality of the higher education system seems to draw students to certain countries, primarily the United States and the United Kingdom.
However, it is also important to note that the cost of higher education, financial incentives such as international scholarships and fellowships, and opportunities for students to stay after completing their degree are becoming more of a priority. If the host market is growing, the considerations for students are also growing, and they go far beyond the degree itself.
Decompose data according to purpose
The work on Project Atlas isn't finished yet. In 2001, the focus of this research initiative was to focus on data collection methods and opportunities for harmonizing, comparing, and discussing trends. These principles continue to resonate today.
The definition of who counts as an “international student” or “foreign student” varies widely depending on the host country. Some countries include only students with state-issued student visas, while others include all foreign-born students, including those with residency.
Additionally, there is a measure of how a student's global academic travel is counted. Some countries only count students pursuing a full degree in their home country, while others count students taking courses leading to a degree (including non-degree courses).
And, of course, there is the question of the role of online learning globally and whether countries can accommodate students studying in-person and online at their institutions. Project Atlas analysis provides nuance to the comparisons made. Calculations regarding international student and higher education capacity allow for side-by-side comparisons, taking into account local data collection and reality.
Project Atlas partners also take the time to discuss their data and the trends they're seeing nationally and globally. Multiple factors influence each year's data, so being able to discuss national and international policies, higher education trends, and other considerations provides more insight into the data.
Project Atlas partners learn from each other and improve their data collection practices. For example, the introduction of online learning has sparked debate about the number of students enrolled in online classes. Some partners have been collecting such data for years, while others lacked the means. Through discussion, partners share their approaches.
Over the past three years, quick access to data has also become important. Project Atlas released and presented data during the COVID-19 pandemic ahead of regularly scheduled releases by the OECD and UNESCO.
It is vital that international student data is shared regularly from reliable sources. Recognizing that the global student mobility landscape continues to change, it is essential that we continue to focus on data to inform regional and international discussions. As you know, looking at past data can help you tackle the future.
Mirka Martel is director of research, evaluation, and learning at the American Institute for International Education. Her email: mmartel@iie.org. This article first appeared in the latest edition. International higher education.
