This is the digital version From the political desk, a daily newsletter covering the biggest stories in politics. Today's top article is by Ben Kamisar, with additional analysis by Steve Kornacki.
President Joe Biden could face voter turnout problems in 2024. The experimental stealth campaign in South Carolina's Democratic primary also highlights the ways in which Republican officials are trying to exploit Mr. Biden's weaknesses.
The conservative group, which is funded by anonymous donors, sent a mailer to about 75,000 Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, a state with a large number of black voters, ahead of the Feb. 3 primary, warning that the administration's menthol He criticized Biden for promoting a tobacco ban. Black smokers are more likely to use menthol cigarettes, according to research cited by the FDA, and the potential ban has divided civil rights groups.
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Biden won the South Carolina primary with 96% support, but the bigger question is whether the copy obtained by NBC News urged recipients to stay home. Such an outcome, or encouraging voters to consider third-party options, could have an even bigger impact in the fall in close states.
A person familiar with the advocacy strategy of the group, Building America's Future, told NBC News that the nonprofit has yet to determine how mail carriers influenced recipients' votes in the South Carolina primary. It is currently being analyzed, but said it plans to reinvest in a similar strategy later this year.
The group plans to spend more than $1 million on efforts aimed at swaying Democratic voters away from Biden in the general election, primarily in battleground states. The plan is to use a combination of television, digital, radio and direct mail to target primarily black voters in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin.But the group may also target younger voters, as it has in the past. During the golf WM Phoenix Open This month we focus on concerns about the possible ban of nicotine pouches like Zyn.
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Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The main event shifts to Haley's home state of South Carolina this Saturday, but her campaign's math problem won't be so easy to solve.
Polls show him lagging far behind Donald Trump in the state, and there are no signs that he is making new inroads with core Republican voters. This means Haley's hopes for an upset victory will likely need to remain plausible as a candidate, but she has garnered support from non-Republicans and gained support at an unprecedented level in the South Carolina primary. It means that it depends on whether you can do it.
To put her challenge in perspective, let's take a look at the breakdown of South Carolina's Republican primary electorate this century (and note that the state does not register voters by party, i.e. , anyone can participate in Republican elections, and the numbers below reflect that (and how voters identified their party loyalty in past exit polls):
As you can see, the percentage of people who call themselves Republicans ranges from just over 60% all the way up to 80%. By comparison, only 50% of voters in New Hampshire's Republican primary last month identified themselves as Republicans. So unless there's an unexpected surge in these voters, Ms. Haley will need to see those numbers plummet to an all-time low on Saturday, but that would leave the influence of a voting bloc that appears quite hostile to Ms. Haley on Saturday. power will be reduced.
For that to happen, the percentage of independents and Democrats who support her will need to increase accordingly. As the chart above shows, the two parties' shares in South Carolina's Republican primary typically fall in the 20-30% range. The only exception was in 2000, when John McCain ran against George W. Bush and relied on a coalition that relied heavily on non-Republican supporters like Haley. But even that wasn't enough for McCain. McCain lost the state to Bush by 11 points, thanks to Bush's overwhelming support among core Republicans.
And since 2000, Republicans and non-Republicans have never been so divided in their support for a candidate.
Note that McCain, who ran in 2008, is the only candidate to win South Carolina, despite finishing second among self-identified Republicans. But McCain's deficit among these voters was only one point, and he was able to ride the strong support of independent voters to victory statewide.
But as Ms. Haley faces a wide gap with Republican voters, her own efforts resemble the 2000 McCain model rather than the 2008 model. And to do what McCain failed to do in 2000 and actually take control of the state, Haley will need to somehow gain a share of non-Republicans while squeezing even more votes from them. It will need to be expanded further. Let's talk about a tall order.
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🗞️ Today's Top News
- ❌ Punishment: President Joe Biden's administration has imposed significant new sanctions on Russia following the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Read more →
- 💸 Rating: The Biden campaign and Democratic allies say they have saved $130 million through January in preparation for the extremely expensive general election. Read more →
- ❓If you think about it: Dozens of prominent Republican candidates made false claims about the 2020 election central to their candidacies during the last campaign. But while many of them are running again, some are toning down the topic of election fraud. Read more →
- ☑️ boo and vote : The Democratic mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, a predominantly Middle Eastern town, wrote an op-ed criticizing Biden, saying Biden would “irresponsibly” vote in the Michigan primary instead of supporting the president. Read more →
- 🍔 Battle of the Senate sparks a burger war: Republican Eric Hovde jumped into the Wisconsin Senate race, giving Republicans a well-funded option to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Democrats welcomed him by framing him as a carpetbagger from California, likening the choice to a fight between two hamburger chains. Popular Culver's in Wisconsin v. California-based In-N-Out. Read more →
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