Medical assistant is one of the hourly shift jobs expected to boom over the next decade. The impact of AI could be far-reaching, but it remains unclear how well it will help workers.
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Despite all the attention in the job market press, the world isn't made up of salaried data analysts and software engineers. In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 55.6% of all wage workers in the United States were paid hourly in 2022. Industries such as healthcare, hospitality, retail, and manufacturing make up this large group, which doesn't even include the gig work economy.
Among that majority lies the pressing question of how the introduction of artificial intelligence will affect hourly workers.
According to Workplace Management Software Company Deputy's 2024 Big Shift Report on the Evolving Labor Market, 70% of shift workers expressed confidence that AI will transform their work.
But AI is not the same as past technology-driven changes to work. While previous technological and industrial revolutions have primarily disrupted blue-collar sectors, AI is digitizing general intelligence, according to Silvija Martičević, CEO of Deputy. “We actually think this is the first time there's been a large-scale disruption to knowledge workers.” ”
She is expected to be resilient to AI disruption in sectors that require a human touch, such as aged care, hospitality and other services. “All of these industries employ hourly workers,” she says.
Not all experts believe that AI and disruption go hand in hand for all types of workers. “I don't really like the idea of disruption,” said Doug Hammond, president of operational talent solutions at staffing and staffing firm Randstad USA. “I think this word carries a lot of baggage, like ‘the sky is falling.’”
Hammond said AI is more about “the rapid evolution of technology that enables incremental increases in productivity.”
“Deskless workers” and technology
Regardless of perspective, hourly workers and those who manage them are actively seeking technology solutions to streamline their workflows. In a survey of hourly workers, 22% are interested in leveraging AI in their work, and 23% have already experimented with AI tools, according to instant payments platform Branch's latest annual report. That's what it means.
Martincevic said Deputy clients like Ace Hardware and Dutch Bros Coffee are asking for more engagement tools to help hourly workers feel connected to the workplace. Shift workers, often referred to as deskless employees, have not experienced the tangible technological renaissance that desk-based employees have experienced through project management tools, video conferencing, and asynchronous collaboration platforms.
Hammond said the shift work industry has been increasingly automated for years, moving from individuals to machines to computer-driven processes. For example, the use of robots to sort and pick small items is making inroads into the logistics industry, which has traditionally been staffed by hourly workers on warehouse floors. But that doesn't mean replacement, he says. “This opens up opportunities to upskill into higher-level decision-making roles, such as robot maintenance, planning and strategy,” Hammond said.
He added: “It will significantly increase productivity, enabling workers and employers to do more, and have an overall positive impact on both the economy and the well-being and livelihoods of workers. It will happen,” he added. ”
Hammond said that, beyond employers and employees, some of the key stakeholders to this labor market megatrend are that education and training systems have not kept up, putting further pressure on employers. said. “At the end of the day, employers need people to run their businesses,” he says. “If we can't find those people at the wage levels they can afford, then we're going to have to invest in upskilling. We need to find or create this workforce.”
On the employee side, pressure is focused on upskilling that should help employees achieve personal success. “Pick packers, who pick items and pack them into boxes within a distribution facility, are not going to make as much money as robotics,” Hammond said. However, it remains unclear whether actual compensation will increase enough over the long term to match the new responsibilities that replace old automated tasks.
Tight global job market
Experts say the global labor market will remain tight and companies will compete for workers. In the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom and 36 other countries, unemployment hit a record low of 33.2 million last year. Multiemployment, the Deputy Prime Minister's term for one worker holding multiple jobs, has more than doubled for shift workers since 2021, but one worker's weekly The time given to you is limited. Increasing the value of an individual's work, and therefore their compensation, and optimizing their time to do more through technology can benefit all parties.
Martišević believes that the digitalization of shift work can help solve a huge failure in the market. This bullish sentiment stems from numbers such as the BLS's projection that more than 800,000 new home health and personal care aide jobs will be added to the market in the decade through 2032. .
“The next decade is going to be a decade in which hourly workers are focused on providing services that require a human touch,” she said.
Employee turnover is high in a shift work economy. According to Legion's latest hourly workforce report, 62% of hourly workers plan to retire within the next year.
Like all workers, one of the goals of hourly workers is to find meaning in their work. According to Hammond, it is inevitable that people who feel less replaceable will be more satisfied with their jobs. “When people do work that feels meaningful, they are more motivated and able to demonstrate their worth,” he added.
If AI is the answer to moving people up the value chain, it could be a game-changer for the world. But that's a big “what if” question, according to early worker surveys. Experts say whether workers who take the time to upskill will actually be rewarded in tangible ways depends on organizations and economic networks.