After a strong start to the new financial year 2024-25 (FY25), the second week of April 2024 will see the release of several important corporate and macroeconomic data that investors will keep an eye on. will collect. First January-March results of fiscal year 2023-24 (Q4 FY24), domestic macroeconomic data, company announcements, oil prices, foreign capital outflows, and global cues guide market direction this week Major stock market triggers.
Indian stock markets experienced volatile trading in the first week of the new financial year, but managed to end on a positive note. However, weak global indicators continue to weigh on the market, and buying in selected leading stocks across sectors not only limits the damage, but also allows the index to close higher. also contributed. Domestic equity benchmarks Nifty 50 and Sensex extended their winning streak, posting gains for the third consecutive week since the start of FY2025.
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Nifty 50 hit an all-time high of 22,619 and ended the week above 22,500 with a decent gain of 0.84%. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 596.87 or 0.81 per cent to close at 74,248.22, hitting an all-time high of 74,501.73. Most major sectors traded in sync with this movement, rising steadily higher, with metals, real estate, and banks among the top gainers.
Highlights of the week included the mid-cap index hitting an all-time high of 50,000, marking its biggest weekly gain in seven months, while the small-cap index rose more than 7%, outperforming the broader index. It was better than that.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced its first policy decision for FY25, keeping interest rates unchanged for the seventh time at 6.5%, in line with D Street expectations.
Financial services, the most heavily weighted sub-index, rose 2.70% this week, its highest level in four months, led by gains in private sector leader HDFC Bank, on the back of continuous growth in deposits in the March quarter. It became. HDFC Bank rose 7.02% this week, its highest level since November 2022.
“Volatility increased over the weekend due to rising geopolitical tensions, as well as rising US Treasury yields and oil prices,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services. Despite the RBI policy meeting being as expected, concerns over food inflation and heat wave cautions tempered market sentiment. ”
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“We expect the automotive sector to deliver positive results in the fourth quarter due to higher volumes and price realization in the premium segment. Meanwhile, weakness in the commercial vehicle and tractor segments is due to high base and storage levels. However, the ongoing correction trend in the IT sector in the wake of global uncertainty is expected to continue in the medium term, especially as quarterly forecasts have softened. ” added Nair.
Several major listings are scheduled this week across the small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) segment of the flagship market. Offers will open for select initial public offerings (IPOs) across the small and medium-sized business segment. This week will be important from a domestic and technical perspective as investors focus on economic indicators and corporate performance.
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Overall, analysts expect the Nifty 50 to be in a consolidation phase with a prevailing bullish bias around 22,500. Experts advised traders to continue with a 'buy the dip' approach until the Nifty 50 crosses 22,200 and suggested them to focus on stock selection and not get carried away with the recovery in the broader index. There is.
Here are the main drivers for the stock market next week:
Domestic macroeconomic data, third quarter results:
Indian companies are set to enter the new corporate earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2024 this week. Leading the pack is information technology (IT) services major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), which is set to begin its earnings season for the quarter ending March 2024. TCS' 4Q FY24 results are expected to be announced on Friday, April 12. 2024, aftermarket trading hours.
India's March 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation or retail inflation and February Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data are also expected to be released on April 12, and investors should expect this week. We will also pay attention to macroeconomic data.
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In the SME sector, DCG Cables & Wires IPO and Teerth Gopicon IPO will begin offering on April 8th. Greenhitech Ventures IPO will open for bidding on April 12, 2024.
Among the listed stocks, Bharti Hexacom's shares will debut on stock exchanges BSE, NSE on April 12. Additionally, on April 8, shares of Yash Optics & Lens and K2 Infragen will debut in his NSE SME and shares of Jay Kailash Namkeen will debut in his BSE SME. . On April 9, shares of Aluwind Architectural and Creative Graphics Solutions India will be listed on his NSE SME.
FII activities
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have started the new financial year 2024-25 (FY25) on a subdued note after emerging as buyers of Indian stocks and bonds during FY24. FPI is pumped INRIndian equity investment in FY24 was $2.04 billion, the highest FPI inflow since FY21. INR2.74 billion, according to stock exchange data.
FPI sold INR325 million worth of Indian stocks, total inflow is INR144.4 billion as on April 5, taking into account debt, hybrid, debt VRR and equity, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data.Total debt inflow is INR121.5 billion so far this month.
“U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated widely this year on expectations of rate cuts by the Fed. This year began with the market discounting six rate cuts in 2024, resulting in lower yields. We have started pricing in just three rate cuts.''The job cuts are happening as the US labor market remains tight,'' said Dr. VK Vijayamar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
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“Many experts now believe there will only be two rate cuts, with backloading to 2024. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yield has jumped to 4.4%.” This will impact FPI inflows to India in the short term. However, FPI selling will be limited despite high US bond yields as the Indian stock market is bullish and consistently setting new records. The key trends in FPI activity are heavy selling in the FMCG sector and strong buying in telecom and real estate,” added Dr. VK Vijayakumar.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in 4 out of 5 sessions in Indian markets last week, with net outflows INRLast week, domestic institutional investors (DII) accounted for $3,835.75 million, while inflows and outflows were offset, according to stock exchange data.
global queue
Globally, the US market has moved from a high level due to rising US bond yields, rising commodity prices (oil, gold, silver), and increased attention to the geopolitical situation (Iran-Israel situation). This indicates that the company has taken profits. proxy conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian war). Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, said these factors will be closely monitored as they can impact market sentiment.
Additionally, the US is scheduled to release its inflation rate on April 10, 2024. The March U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, released on April 5, 2024, will play a key role in shaping market mood in the short term. .of The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to announce its interest rate decision next week.
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“The recent decline has also focused attention on developments in the U.S. market, which could prompt further declines if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes below $38,500.” On the higher side, it will face stiff resistance around the 39,300-39,800 zone,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
crude oil price
International oil prices hit a six-month high in pre-market trading, reporting their second straight week of gains, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmarks recently rose more than $1 a barrel, with Brent crude gaining 52 cents, or 0.57%, to settle at $91.17.
U.S. WTI crude oil closed at $86.91 per barrel. Both benchmarks rose more than 4% last week after Iran vowed to retaliate for attacks on Israel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allied Countries (OPEC+) last week left its oil supply policy unchanged and pressured some countries to better comply with targeted production cuts.
corporate behavior
In the second week of the new financial year 2024-25 (FY25), stocks of several companies such as Vesuvius India, Sun TV Network, Good Luck India Ltd and DCM Shriram Industries will go ex-dividend from Monday, April 8. It will be traded. In addition to these, some other companies will also trade in installments, ex-rights and bonus payments, according to data on the BSE.Check the complete list here
Technical view
According to Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmarts, the Nifty 50 is currently in a correction phase with a bullish bias prevailing and hovering around 22,500. Ajit Mishra of Religare Brokings said, “The Nifty is currently undergoing a period of correction near its all-time high and is healthy despite weak global indicators.'' Traders should continue with the 'buy the push' approach until Nifty crosses 22,200. ”
“On the upside, we may see a gradual rise towards the 22,700-22,850 zone. Meanwhile, participants will continue to focus on stock selection and not get carried away with the broader index recovery and focus on only blue-chip stocks.” We should suggest not to persist,” Mishra added.
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Arvinder Singh Nanda, senior vice president at Master Capital Services, said support is expected to be in the range of $22,400 to $22,300. “Nifty's short-term trajectory remains favorable and its current range-bound movement suggests the potential for significant swings in either direction,” Nanda said.
“This market move points to a narrowing range near all-time highs. It would be wise to watch for range widening near the 22,600 and 22,300 levels on either end,” the analyst added.
Santosh Meena says Bank Nifty is showing notable strength featuring a breakout from a bullish cup-and-handle formation, with a potential rally towards the coveted 50,000 level. It is said to be showing momentum.
“Looking forward, we expect to encounter an impending failure at 48,650. However, above this level we expect upward momentum to continue, potentially reaching up to 49,400. 47,800 It is noteworthy that the range from 47,500 to 47,500 is the most important near-term support zone,” said Arvinder Singh Nanda.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed above are those of individual analysts and brokerages and not of Mint. We recommend checking with a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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