Inflation indicators in major countries will be crucial this week, as changes in global interest rate expectations drive price trends. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decisions and a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials dominate the G10 central banks' calendar.
The Core PCE Price Index is an important release in the United States' busy economic schedule. The Fed's recommended inflation measure is now forecast to rise 0.4% monthly (previously 0.2%) in January. The numbers will be closely watched as January's high CPI and PPI values forced traders to postpone interest rate cut expectations from May to June.
Other U.S. data includes fourth-quarter GDP, durable goods, consumer confidence, trade, new home sales, personal income and consumption, S&P and ISM manufacturing PMIs, and the final February University of Michigan sentiment report. The following estimates are included:
Fed speakers include Susan Collins, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsby, and Mary Daly.
The highlight of the European data is February's preliminary HICP readings, which are expected to inch towards the European Central Bank's 2% target even as policymakers back away from hasty rate cuts. Other primarily second-tier data includes economic sentiment, consumer confidence, unemployment rates, and German inflation.
Japan releases the January CPI, which forms expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rates. Core CPI is expected to slow from 2.3% to 1.8% annually. In addition to industrial production, retail sales, and employment statistics, the speech and press conference by Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takada will also attract attention.
In the UK, Bank of England officials have been giving speeches one after another. The only data of note is February's final manufacturing PMI.
China is scheduled to officially release the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI for February.
The RBNZ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday as inflation expectations continued to decline in the first quarter. The probability of a rate hike is 31% (0#RBNZWATCH), and RBNZ's future OCR trends and Governor Adrian Orr's press conference will be key.
In Australia, January's CPI will drive the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts after the bank continued to signal the possibility of further tightening this month. Retail sales and capital expenditures are also expected.
Canada's main announcements are the fourth quarter GDP and manufacturing PMI.
Click here for more information