Russian forces moved further into the Kharkov region in northeastern Ukraine over the weekend, but analysts say the move is aimed more at drawing Ukrainian military forces away from the eastern front rather than seizing the country's second city. He said it was highly likely that he did.
Attacking from two directions, Russian forces captured several villages in the Liptsi district, 30 kilometers north of the city of Kharkiv, and Vos, 40 kilometers further east, according to the open source intelligence group Deep State, which cited geolocation data. It is said to have reached the outskirts of Khchansk city. From the area.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Sunday night that Ukrainian forces were carrying out “brutal fighting in large parts of our country's border areas.”
The deep state warned that without further deployment of Ukrainian reserve forces, the situation in the region would become “extremely dire.”
Ukrainian military commander-in-chief Oleksandr Shirushkyi said on Sunday that the situation in Kharkiv had “significantly deteriorated” and that Ukrainian forces had repelled nine attacks around eight disputed settlements in the region. He did not acknowledge any territorial losses, saying his forces were “doing everything in their power to maintain their defensive perimeters and positions.”
Ukrainian officials and analysts had long expected an attack on Kharkov from across the border from Russia's Belgorod region, observing large concentrations of Russian troops in the region. . They believe this is part of a growing number of operations aimed at exploiting Moscow's superiority in weapons and personnel ahead of the arrival of U.S. military aid and expanded Ukrainian mobilization efforts later this summer. There is.
Ukrainian Defense Forces officials told the Financial Times last week that the expected Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine is primarily aimed at drawing Ukrainian forces away from the eastern Donbas region.
“The intention of the attack in the Kharkiv region is to expand our military forces and undermine the moral and motivational foundations of the Ukrainian people's ability to defend themselves,” Zelensky said in a video address Sunday night.
Officials and analysts say the Russian military forces involved in the Kharkiv offensive, consisting of two corps and about 35,000 soldiers, were not enough to attempt to capture the city. And so far, the attacks have been small.
Frontelligence Insight, an analysis group run by former Ukrainian military officers, says, “Russian forces in the region have an overwhelming superiority in personnel and equipment, and are well positioned to concentrate their forces and carry out deep attacks.'' “They had not formed a mechanized force.”
“Instead, they use platoon-sized or even squad-sized forces to conduct multiple small-scale attacks at various border points, allowing some forces to penetrate the border without encountering significant resistance. made possible.”
Frontelligence added that Russia's new Kharkov offensive had probably already achieved “partial success” in drawing Ukrainian forces away from other defensive positions on the front lines, but the names of the redeployed units were not clear. I didn't. Ukrainian forces are struggling to maintain defensive positions in Donetsk, part of the Donbas River that remains a focus of Russia's war effort.
Moscow may also be seeking to create a buffer zone to better protect the Russian city of Belgorod, 70 kilometers from Kharkiv. The local governor claimed on Sunday that at least nine people were killed when a Ukrainian rocket struck an apartment complex in the city center, state news agency Ria reported.
Shelling has increased in Belgorod in recent months, but footage of Sunday's airstrike leaving a gaping hole in a 10-storey block and people being rescued from beneath the rubble remains extraordinary and shocking. It will be. Russian. Russian warplanes have also accidentally dropped bombs on the city several times.
Another possible purpose of Moscow's new offensive is to move troops within artillery range of the city of Kharkov. Russian forces were able to continuously shell Kharkov, terrorizing the population and destroying many buildings in the northeast of the city, until they were pushed back from the area in the fall of 2022.
To do so would require Russian forces to break through Ukraine's main defense lines and advance further into Ukrainian territory, but analysts said it was unclear whether they would be able to gain momentum.
The villages captured since Friday are located in what Ukrainian authorities call the “gray zone” between the Russian border and Ukraine's main defense line.
Serhiy Kuzan, director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation think tank, said neither side wanted to hold positions in the area because of the unfavorable low-lying terrain.
Kuzan said Russia entered a previously empty gray zone area on Friday, while Ukrainian forces were holding a pre-arranged front along a natural barrier.
“This incursion has caused panic that they have advanced a few kilometers, but there is no need to panic. They want to break through the front and repeat what we did in 2022. [Ukraine’s lightning counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region] But they failed and are now stuck,” Kuzan said.
He said the Russian army did not have the strength to advance further, but had enough to continue fighting in the area for at least a month, with the aim of getting as close as possible to the city of Kharkov “to put pressure on it” through artillery bombardment. He said that there was sufficient reserve capacity. City.
Pro-Kremlin military bloggers agreed that Russia's main achievements were in a gray area, saying the Russians should not expect a quick breakthrough and much would depend on the arrival of US aid.
Russian war reporter Alexander Kots, writing in the pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda on Saturday, said many of the key routes Russia is trying to take are riddled with land mines, and warned against Russian forces. He said Ukraine's use of drones “cannot be ignored.”
“The enemy has not built a full-fledged defense line. [in the grey zone]; They are waiting for us out here,” Kotz wrote. “And in 2024, Kiev will be even more capable of resisting advancing forces.”