(Bloomberg) — Oil prices continued to rise even before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its market outlook, with traders looking for signs of whether supply constraints will be extended and U.S. inflation shaping expectations for monetary policy. I pay attention to statistics.
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Brent traded above $83 a barrel after rising 0.7% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $79. The cartel's monthly detailed survey comes about two weeks before its members meet to decide on policy, following evidence that refinery run cuts and narrowing time spreads suggest some softening in the market. It will be done.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., producer price data released later on Tuesday, and the following day's consumer print edition, will determine whether the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates this year, or if expectations for a cut are postponed to 2025. This will give you a clue as to what will happen.
Oil prices have been on a downward trend since April, and the geopolitical risk premium caused by tensions in the Middle East has largely evaporated. Still, prices have remained high since the start of the year as OPEC and its allies restrict imports and exports, and the group is widely expected to extend restrictions into the second half of the year.
“We think OPEC+ is likely to leave its current production plans unchanged, which will entrench voluntary supply cuts,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said. Against this backdrop, and with developed countries expecting interest rate cuts, Brent oil prices will average $80 a barrel in the third quarter and $85 a barrel in the final three months, Dahl said. Stated.
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