Silver market trends
Silver prices continue to rise despite rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising more than 5 basis points to 4.5%. This indicates that the market is expecting more accommodative monetary policy, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver. In addition, these various economic indicators led to a modest rise in the US dollar, but it failed to dampen the bullish momentum in silver prices.
Upcoming CPI Announcements and Federal Reserve Policy
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2024 on May 15th at 12:30 (Japan time). This report is extremely important as it comes ahead of the June 12 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Inflation remains the main concern, with April forecasts showing headline inflation rising 0.4% and core inflation rising 0.3%. These numbers will play a key role in guiding the Fed's response to inflationary pressures.
Inflation trends and employment data
Shelter costs, which account for a large portion of the CPI, continue to rise faster than other categories, contributing to continued high inflation. This continued rise in shelter costs indicates that overall inflation may not decline significantly in the near future. Additionally, as the FOMC places increasing emphasis on employment data, the relationship between future employment data and inflation data will be critical in determining the Fed's future decisions.
Short term market forecast
Silver markets are expected to become more volatile as traders and investors await the release of April CPI data. If the CPI shows that inflation is cooling more than expected, or if the jobs report shows that the job market is deteriorating further, silver could rise in value as an early rate cut becomes more likely. be.
Conversely, if inflation statistics remain high or exceed expectations, the Fed could delay rate cuts, potentially limiting silver price gains. Traders should monitor these economic indicators closely as they have a significant impact on silver price movements in the short term.