press release
May 10, 24
Employer-to-employer transition probability data provides insight into worker mobility in the U.S. labor market. This series is updated on the second Friday of each month.
For immediate release
Contact: Sarah Katz, Media Contact
PHILADELPHIA — The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has begun releasing new rolling data measuring the percentage of workers who move from one employer to another. This dataset, called the Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay (FMP) Employer-to-Employer (E2E) Transition Probabilities, provides a timely measure of the pace of worker reallocation in the U.S. labor market.
The FMP E2E transition probability complements U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, including turnover rates from the Recruitment and Turnover Survey, by measuring the rate at which workers transition directly from one employer to another. Masu. Because workers typically leave one job and move on to another in search of better opportunities, a faster pace of transition between employers tends to imply higher aggregate wages and productivity.
“When combined with other employment data, FMP E2E data provides a nuanced picture of how workers are moving through the U.S. job market,” said Rock Armanter, executive vice president and research director at the Philadelphia Fed. This could be useful in providing a different perspective.” “These data help economists and analysts better understand the strength of the labor market.”
This series is based on the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) Public Use Microdata File (also known as Household Survey data within the BLS Employment Status Summary). Shigeru Fujita of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Giuseppe Moscarini of Yale University, and Fabien Postel Vinay of University College London adjust for nonresponse to a CPS survey question about respondents changing employers. developed the model. The research paper details the methodology and provides extensive analysis of the data and will be published in his July 2024 issue of the journal. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. The Philadelphia Fed also released a research paper on the FMP E2E series in 2021.
This series is updated on the second Friday of each month. The data is accompanied by a visualization tool that allows you to see seasonally adjusted migration probabilities since 1995.
About the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps develop and implement monetary policy. Supervises state member banks, bank holding companies, and savings and loan holding companies. Provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. He is one of the 12 regional reserve banks that, along with the Washington, D.C., board of governors, make up the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia serves eastern and central Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.