(CNN) — The U.S. birth rate has been on the decline for decades, and a new report shows birth rates will decline further in 2023, bringing the birth rate to its lowest level in more than 100 years.
Approximately 3.6 million babies will be born in 2023, or 54.4 births for every 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics.
Birth rates have fluctuated after plummeting in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic. However, a 3% decline from 2022 to 2023 puts the rate just below its lowest level since 2020 (56 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age).
“Certainly there have been larger declines in the past. But the decline fits into a general pattern,” said Dr. Brady Hamilton, a statistician at the National Center for Health Statistics and lead author of the new report. Ta.
Birth rates for most age groups fell from 2022 to 2023, according to a new report.
The teen birth rate has reached another record low of 13.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19, 79% lower than its most recent peak since 1991. However, the rate of decline was slower than in the past decade. and half.
“It used to be highest among women in their 20s, but over time the highest rates are shifting to women in their 30s,” Hamilton said. “One factor, of course, is the option to wait. Let's say there's a pandemic, or there's an economic recession. Women in their 20s might want to postpone having children until the situation improves and they feel more comfortable. Waiting is not a viable option for older women.
Meanwhile, childbirth continued to shift to older mothers. The decline in fertility was smaller in older age groups, with the highest birth rate among women aged 30 to 34, with about 95 births per 1,000 women in this group in 2023. However, the birth rate remains lower than any other age group, at less than 13 children per 1,000 women.
Although these annual reports provide a snapshot in time, interest rates can change dramatically depending on the unique circumstances of the year, he said.
The year 2023 marks a full year since the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs decision stripped the federal government of its right to abortion. This preliminary data does not show geographic trends, which may obscure some of the effects of state abortion bans on state-level fertility trends. However, a November analysis found that in the first half of 2023, the average birth rate in states with abortion bans was 2.3 percentage points higher than in states without restrictions, resulting in about 32,000 more births than expected. Suggested.
As maternal mortality continues to rise in the United States, the rate of C-section births, a “major abdominal surgery,” is also rising, Hamilton said.
Nearly a third (32.4%) of all births are by cesarean section, the highest rate in a decade, according to a new CDC report. But caesarean sections are also becoming more common for low-risk births, such as pregnancies that reach term or women giving birth for the first time with a single fetus facing forward.
Preliminary birth data is based on birth records received and processed by the National Center for Health Statistics as of January 25. The trend captures over 99% of all birth records for the year, but data is subject to change as all records are verified.