introduction
Despite intense interest from lawmakers and the media about Chinese migrants crossing the southern border, reliable data sources on these migrants are limited.
One source of information available is the Ecuadorian International Immigration and Emigration Statistics Register, which is updated annually. This database provides valuable insight into the characteristics of Chinese immigrants entering Ecuador. Ecuador is the only mainland country in the Western Hemisphere that allows Chinese nationals visa-free travel.
Because most Chinese immigrants enter the Americas via Ecuador, these records can reasonably be used to draw inferences about irregular Chinese immigration. This assumption is supported by net entry/exit data showing that Chinese nationals entered Ecuador 48,381 times in 2023, but left only 24,240 times. As a result, her immigration deficit was 24,141 people, the highest of any nationality.
Several other data points in the latest release summarizing international arrivals in 2023 further strengthen our knowledge of irregular Chinese immigration. For example, U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows that contacts with Chinese nationals have increased sharply in recent years. This increase is reflected in Ecuador's travel data, which shows a record 23,859 Chinese nationals traveled to Ecuador at least once in 2023, an increase of almost 235% compared to the average of the previous five years. has been done.
But some new data points complicate our assumptions about who these immigrants are.
The majority of people in the region are still subject to repression.
An analysis of last year's data shows that Hong Kong and Xinjiang, which have experienced severe levels of social and political repression by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in recent years, are overrepresented as cities of origin recorded in Ecuador's immigration data. It was found that a proportion of
This finding is replicated in this year's data, with Hong Kong having the second highest rate of travel to Ecuador per million people, and Xinjiang sixth.
Hong Kong's overrepresentation in regular business travel and immigration data is plausible, partly explained by the region's relatively high economic development, presence of an airport, and total population.
However, the high proportion from Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region for the second consecutive year cannot be easily explained. The large number of tourists from Aksu and Altai prefectures greatly skews Xinjiang's population. Aksu is 80% Uyghur, while Altai is majority Kazakh. This may indicate that travelers from the region are not Han Chinese, or at least do not have first-hand knowledge of the CCP's repressive system in the region.
It is reasonable to assume that travelers from Xinjiang are probably traveling to Ecuador to escape persecution by the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, all travelers from Aksu and Altai Oblasts who chose to list their motivation for travel chose “residency” rather than tourism, transportation, or business.
However, the numbers in this dataset need to be stronger to show that persecution is a necessary factor for irregular travel from China to Ecuador. In 2022 and 2023, only two provinces had no visitors to Ecuador: Qinghai, which is only 51% Han Chinese, and Tibet Autonomous Region, which is 86% Tibetan.
Although both provinces have experienced large-scale human rights abuses, they have not yet recorded the same level of international travel as Xinjiang or Hong Kong. This suggests that other factors besides possible social, religious, and political concerns are also important in determining whether an area has a high number of undocumented immigrants.
The declining Tohoku region is also high.
Provinces in Northeast China's “Rust Belt” have experienced significant population declines in recent years, with 30% of their populations declining from 2010 to 2020.
Despite the region's precipitous population decline, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces have all experienced a population adjustment of Chinese tourists to Ecuador, as indicated by stars in this table. later in the top third of their region of origin.
region | Travel rate to Ecuador per million people in 2023 |
shanghai city | 274 |
hong kong special administrative region | 257 |
beijing city | 161 |
Heilongjiang* | one two three |
fujian province | 28 |
Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region | twenty four |
Macau Special Administrative Region | 19 |
Jilin Province* | 19 |
hubei province | 11 |
shaanxi province | 11 |
Liaoning* | 9 |
Source: Data compiled by the author from Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Registro Estadístico de Entradas y Salidas 2023 |
The region's view that China's escalating political persecution and economic slowdown are likely contributing to illegal immigration is supported by the broader Chinese demographic profile derived from Ecuadorian travel data. ing.
Most travelers are male, middle class, and under 40 years old
Chinese immigrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border are often ominously referred to as “military-age males.”
This data supports the fact that the majority of immigrants are young and male. In 2023, 71% of Chinese immigrants to Ecuador were male, and 55% were between the ages of 15 and 39. Three factors almost certainly explain these demographic trends, none of which indicate a national security risk.
First, due to the one-child policy, there is a significant gender imbalance in China, with many men having trouble finding women to marry. The pressures created by this imbalance have already created a human trafficking market within China, and young Chinese men may embark on the journey if they believe it will make it easier to find a mate. is reasonable.
Second, social media has made what used to be a logistically demanding journey much more manageable and appealing, and young people may feel uncomfortable using social media to navigate their journey. has become higher.
Finally, middle-class Chinese youth are the demographic most likely to have the means and ability to organize and complete the expensive and grueling route to the United States through Ecuador.
Occupational data for immigrants to Ecuador support this explanation. Almost 80% are professionals with high or medium skills, and less than 1% (and only less than 1%) two total) listed “military'' as their field of work.
conclusion
There are no special characteristics that explain why asylum seekers from China come to the southern border. Repressive political repression, the slowdown of China's economy, the rise of social media as a conduit for irregular travel, and perceived limited opportunities all compound each other, leading to the US CBP recording in 2024. A record 24,376 contacts were made with Chinese people. It's easier to understand now.
One common explanation supported by some commentators is that these Chinese immigrants are spies. As explained earlier, this interpretation is highly questionable.
American policymakers interested in effectively rolling back the Chinese Communist Party would rather reject the assumption that all Chinese people have a duty of loyalty, protect anti-communists, and offer an alternative worldview to American democracy. We must actively promote practical, bipartisan solutions that advance our cause.
Olivia Enos of the Hudson Institute persuasively argued for stronger enforcement of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, and the Global Magnitsky Act, which target the Chinese Communist Party's human rights abuses.
At the level of immigration policy, the United States should ensure that Chinese dissidents have access to our refugee system. This was made possible through the passage of the Uyghur Human Rights Protection Act and the Hong Kong Safe Harbor Act, allowing dissidents from these regions to enjoy Priority 2 (P-2) treatment in the refugee resettlement system and the U.S. Refugees will be allowed entry. You cannot join the program without a referral from UNHCR, an embassy, or an NGO.
Despite its authoritarian structure, the Chinese Communist Party does not control the narrative surrounding irregular Chinese immigration to the United States.In the eyes of freedom seekers in China, East Asia, and the world, I It is up to the United States to shape this story before it shapes us.