The NBA Playoffs are in full swing as we near the end of the first round.
In the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves advanced. In the East Division, the Boston Celtics advanced to the second round.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, you'll find a variety of playoff markets, including East Playoff Series odds, West Playoff Series odds, conference winner odds, and more.
In this article, we'll take a look at the odds for the NBA Championship and take a look at the current favorites.
NBA Championship Odds
boston celtics | +125 |
denver nuggets | +280 |
oklahoma city thunder | +800 |
minnesota timberwolves | +900 |
dallas mavericks | +1300 |
new york knicks | +1500 |
milwaukee bucks | +4200 |
Boston Celtics (+125)
Since the last update (over two weeks ago), the Celtics' odds to win have shortened from +165 to +125.
Boston won the series against the Miami Heat in five games. Other than losing 111-102 in Game 2, the Celtics were as dominant as expected. The average winning percentage in the four wins was +22, shooting 47.4% from the field and 39.0% from the arc. Their 15.0 threes per game rank first among teams participating in the playoffs.
It was basically business as usual for Boston, getting revenge against the poor Heat who eliminated them at home in last year's Eastern Conference Finals.
But it wasn't all good news for the Celtics. Kristaps Porzingis injured his calf in Game 4 and is expected to miss several games. Porzingis, who ranked seventh in the regular season with a +7.3 plus/minus, is a key part of the Celtics' excellence. Boston can win without him, but his injury makes the path to a championship even more difficult. How quickly Porzingis can return and how impactful he was, or even if he is, will have a big impact on Boston's prospects.
The Celtics' next game is a second-round matchup against the Orlando Magic or Cleveland Cavaliers. According to Dunks & Threes, both teams finished in the top 10 in Adjusted Defensive Rating (aDRTG) during the regular season, but finished outside the top 14 in Adjusted Net Rating (aNET) due to below-average offense. No matter which team wins, the Celtics are expected to be the heavy favorites.
The Celtics remain the favorites to advance out of the East, with -210 odds to win the Eastern Conference.
Denver Nuggets (+280)
Since the last update, the Nuggets' odds to win have shortened slightly from +300 to +280.
Denver sent the Los Angeles Lakers to five games, but the series was closer than the final results indicated. Denver trailed in the first half of each game and needed buzzer-beaters from Jamal Murray to secure wins in Games 2 and 5. The Nuggets' first-round victory wasn't as memorable as the Celtics', albeit against a much stronger opponent.
Scoring wasn't the problem for Denver. Their 108.6 points per game in the first round ranked them fourth in the postseason, ahead of the Celtics (107.8 points). Against Los Angeles, he shot 46.3 percent from the field, but only 30.8 percent from the arc, well below his season average of 37.4 percent. The defense, which allowed 106.4 points per game (ninth-most in the playoffs), was a bigger problem. Going forward, the Nuggets offense can expect his 3-point shooting to improve, but they need to improve their defense.
A key element to Denver's prospects is the strength of the West. Things are about to get even more difficult for the Nuggets in the second round of their series against the Timberwolves. Minnesota was probably the most impressive team in the first round. FanDuel Sportsbook's Timberwolves vs. Nuggets His series odds favor Denver (-205) to win the series, but this will be a difficult test.
The Nuggets remain the favorites to advance out of the West, with +110 odds to win the Western Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+800)
Next is Thunder. Since the last update, the odds have been shortened from +1600 to +800.
After a shaky two-point win in Game 1, Oklahoma City regained its composure and dominated the New Orleans Pelicans, who were without Zion Williamson in all four games. Every series is important for his OKC team, which lacks postseason experience. The opening sweep was a great start.
The Thunder's defense was the story of this series. They held the Pelicans to just 89.5 points per game, their lowest point in the postseason.
Oklahoma City finished the regular season ranked in the top five in both aDRTG and Adjusted Offensive Rating (aORTG), making them the only team other than the Celtics to do so. So far, they look like the same team.
Looking to the future, the benefits of being the top seed in the West are huge for OKC. They will avoid both Denver and Minnesota in the second round and face the winner of the Dallas Mavericks series against the Los Angeles Clippers, which Dallas currently leads 3-2.
Whoever wins this series will take a step forward in competition with the underpowered Pelicans, but they won't face the same challenges as Denver or Minnesota. The Timberwolves and Nuggets will have to be at their best right away, but the Thunder will have a more manageable step up in difficulty as they continue to gain postseason experience.
As it stands, the Thunder have the second-best odds (+300) to win the West Division.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+900)
I avoided it above, but the Timberwolves were the class of the NBA in the first round. After their blowout win over the Phoenix Suns, their odds have significantly shortened from +1900 to +800 since the last update. Before the play-in tournament, he had the 8th best odds to win it all, but now he has the 4th best odds.
Going into the postseason, the question was whether Minnesota could repeat its regular season success in the playoffs. The answer is clearly yes.
He leads the postseason with 118.3 points per game. Their 103.3 points per game ranks sixth. A team plus/minus of +15.0 checked him in for third place. The question now is, can they continue that success against elite opponents in Denver?
The T-Wolves' score against the Suns shows they can do that. The Timberwolves' solid defense was expected as they led the league in aDRTG during the regular season, but they finished 17th in aORTG. Their 118.3 points per game was a great sign that they may have found the missing piece. If they can combine improved scoring with a great defense, Minnesota should be able to win any remaining series.
The Suns currently rank 14th in aDRTG, far from a dominant defense, while Denver only ranks 9th. The Timberwolves' scoring increase in the first round wasn't driven by anything that seems unsustainable. He shot 47.7 percent from the field, just below the regular season average (48.5 percent), and shot 36.6 percent from behind the arc, also below the regular season average (38.7 percent).
Denver has the advantage in experience, but if the Timberwolves can maintain their improved play offensively, this series should be very interesting. All eyes will be on Game 1, which will be held in Denver on Saturday.
The Timberwolves have +164 odds to win that series and +380 odds to win the West.
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