Is the era of organic SEO coming to an end? This is a thought that arose from a search scientist's evaluation of Google's AI-powered disruptive changes.
At MozCon's 20th annual conference, Tom Cappera senior search scientist at Moz, provided a data-driven reality check.
Capper warned attendees.
“I will end this talk with the message that in 2024, full-funnel organic marketing will be nearly impossible for most businesses.”
He explored how Google’s AI summary results, aggressive monetization, and evolving search intent pose challenges for businesses that rely on SEO.
Additionally, in an exclusive interview with Search Engine Journal, Capper highlighted the potential path forward for those looking to change direction.
The Zero-Click Threat
Capper began by recording an increase in search “intent.” Information provided, navigation, commercialand Transactional Query.
Google’s new AI summary feature, which generates direct answers at the top of the page, is proving to be particularly impactful for information search.
“Organic search is a very uphill battle for informational search intent,” Capper said, pointing to data that shows informational searches have the lowest share of voice versus traditional organic search results thanks to AI Overview and other SERP features.
He also twenty one% Information searches now show featured snippet results that can satisfy users without requiring a click.
“You can't basically play at the top of the funnel,” he stated bluntly.
AI Overview “Mistakes”
In an exclusive interview, Capper warned that Google's rush to implement AI summaries could be damaging to the company's brand image.
“I think Google acted too quickly, I think it was a mistake for sure. It's a bit dangerous for SEO because if Google is hurt, it's going to be disruptive for our industry.”
The commercial battlefield
While the data is dire when it comes to informational content, commercial search represents a “sweet spot,” Capper says.
But these valuable mid-funnel queries are a “messy” and “incredibly fierce” battleground.
Commenting on Google's product review updates and other recent changes, Capper said:
“Commercially, these [Google’s search quality issues] Depending on how it unfolds… it could be a very unstable section.”
Large sites like Amazon, Reddit, and YouTube dominate commercial search results with tons of rich results for price lists and reviews, making it difficult for smaller sites to rank.
“It's much more practical to try and compete here, whether it's the arts, hobbies or real estate,” Capper advised.
He warned publishers against relying solely on questions that are easily answered.
“If you've been doing that, you've probably been struggling for a long time… If you're not willing to pivot to other types of content, then of course, please do so. Find another channel.”
The future of paid and local?
At the bottom of the funnel, Capper explained: Transactional People search for “pay to play unless you run a brick and mortar store.”
Google’s monetization of product listings and experimental map embeds for transactional queries continue to reduce visibility in organic search.
However, Capper stresses that local SEO is the way of the future, saying:
“If we can do well in local search, I think we can do well here even in the worst case scenario of the AI Overview rollout.”
Adapting to changing circumstances
Despite the challenges posed by AI-powered search features, Capper believes there is still an opportunity to succeed with organic marketing.
He offers the following suggestions:
- Increase your organic search visibility by targeting informational queries without featured snippets.
- Focus on commercial queries with less competition in areas like arts, hobbies, and real estate.
- Even businesses without physical stores can leverage local search optimization for transactional queries.
- Identify commercial queries using keyword modifiers such as “best,” “comparison,” “top,” and “review.”
Looking to the future
When asked what advice he has for SEO professionals who may be discouraged by the AI search revolution, Capper suggests adapting and focusing on creating high-quality, authoritative content.
Capper said in an exclusive interview:
“I think if we had even a little bit of drive to write something more interesting, we could perform organic songs.”
Ultimately, Capper remains optimistic about the future of organic search.
In the interview, he points out that Google's business model relies on sending organic traffic to other sites.
“At the end of the day, that’s Google’s business model, so I don’t think we’ll ever get to a situation where Google isn’t sending any traffic at all.
“When people search on Google, they expect to end up on another website. Without that expectation, they wouldn't click on ads. If people don't click on ads, Google doesn't make money.”
In summary
While it’s becoming harder to rank highly in organic search for informational and transactional searches, Capper’s research shows there are opportunities in the commercial and local space.
To adapt, he recommends focusing on commercial topics with less competition, leveraging local SEO for transactional queries, and creating content that goes beyond answering basic questions.
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