ESCANABA — The amount of detectable DNA from the virus that causes COVID-19 in Escanaba's sewage is increasing, according to the latest information from the Sentinel Wastewater Epidemiology Evaluation Project, commonly known as “SWEEP.”
According to SWEEP data, the last sample submitted to the project from the Escanaba Wastewater Treatment Plant, dated April 1, contained 37% more viral DNA than all other samples submitted by the plant. Ta. This sample contained more viral DNA than the previous sample dated March 27, which was only 18% of the sample.
This increase marks a reversal from the downward trend in viral DNA. As of April 6, 15-day migration trends show the amount of virus detectable in the city's sewage ranged from 100% to 100%, based on an exponential growth tracking system designed to reflect virus replication. This suggests an increase of up to 999%. This follows a decline of -10% to -99% in all 15-day trends dating back to March 23rd.
While the data suggests an increase in virus activity over the past 15 days, a longer section of SWEEP's data shows the city has been in a pattern that started in early March, with the amount of detectable DNA fluctuating. It is suggested that there is a fluctuation in About the 10th to 20th percentile on an almost weekly basis.
Consistency is best seen by comparing dates several weeks apart with identical or nearly identical percentiles. For example, his March 4th and his March 20th samples were both in the 14th percentile. On March 11th and 26th, they were 24th and 25th, respectively, just one percentile apart. The most recent samples on March 18 and April 1 were in the 36th and 37th percentiles, respectively.
This trend is in marked contrast to the spikes seen in November 2023 or January 2022, which were the two most severe periods of virus activity since the city began participating in SWEEP in August 2021. is. The amount of viral DNA spikes rapidly, with 15-day moving average increases of more than 1,000% often reported.
The data collected through SWEEP serves as a good barometer of whether the virus is active or not. It is impossible to know the exact number of COVID-19 infections in Escanaba or the severity of cases based on SWEEP data alone, as cases are increasing or decreasing in the region.
At the beginning of the pandemic, before at-home testing became widespread, all tests were performed in healthcare settings or dedicated testing facilities. That data was reported to the state for tracking, but there are no requirements or mechanisms for reporting home tests, which currently make up the majority of all tests.
Despite the holes in the data created by the widespread use of home testing, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services still tracks cases and deaths based on tests administered by health care providers. The latest MDHHS case data for the week of April 6th is shown below.
Gojibic – 32
Ontonagon – 2
Horton – 5
Kiweenaw – 1
Iron – 2
Baraga – 0
Dickinson – 1
Market – 9
Menominee – 9
Delta – 6
Algiers – 1
School performance – 0
Luce – 1
Mackinac – 0
Chippewa – 4
It is important to note that the number of cases reported by MDHHS is the number of new cases. Cases identified in the previous week but still active are not reported in the data.
While most of the peninsula, with the exception of Gojivik district, has relatively low numbers of cases, UP as a whole has seen a significant increase in the number of deaths related to COVID-19. Chippewa, Dickinson and Houghton counties each reported one new death during the week of April 6, according to MDHHS.