Saturday's play at Augusta National was smooth sailing for us. Tyrrell Hatton made life easier for sick Tiger Woods This week's intra-tournament betting total moves to 3-1.
Sunday's direct bet ranks as my least favorite of the four rounds due to its high juice and implied probability edge of just 3.5%. But this is the golfer I mentioned in my Tiger article as being worth a fade if you want an extra bet for the third round, and I've made him the official target to close out Sunday's event. So let's go back to the mix here.
Good luck to everyone who got tickets for the fourth round and let's hope we can squeeze out a little more profit.
If you haven’t already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOfSports). There, we provide a link to the Pre-Tournament Model, a powerful, interactive data spreadsheet that allows you to create custom golf rankings with user input. This sheet is published every Monday, so be sure to check it out and create your own numbers from my database of information.
For more information on Tiger Woods odds, Masters market movements, and the latest information from oddsmakers/risk supervisors, check out Vegas Insider's Patrick Everson's Masters Odds and Betting Trends article.
2024 Masters
Matthew Fitzpatrick -130 vs. Patrick Reed (DraftKings)
Before getting into the edge my model found, there is one issue regarding tomorrow's bets.
My numbers like Matthew Fitzpatrick going into this week, and I've been betting on him on various sides of the market to get more exposure across the board, but given the struggles he's produced in the irons, this… I wouldn't say it was an ideal show for him.
Earlier this week, we talked about how Fitzpatrick added a 4-gram weight to his driver and forgot to remove it for almost a year. Results quickly improved after that mistake was caught at the WM Phoenix Open, but more equipment trouble is in the equation at Augusta, with British players complaining that their current iron sets were not optimized for this week's test. emerged to the forefront.
After deciding to bet -130 juice on the bet, I don't necessarily like any of these answers, but Patrick Reed remains the biggest achiever in my model through three rounds of golf. and will probably close more than 30 points higher than this when we play. Watch the market lift us up.
If you add his baseline short game metrics to his actual ball striking, the 7.6 shots he's making from Reed's baseline score this week in my model is an overachievement, but my data shows his Not exactly correct because it underestimates the skill. But even if we use his totals from the year he won the Masters in 2018, this is a problem because he still averaged over 5.85 on the greens and lost 2.55 strokes from tee to field. becomes.
Fitzpatrick himself doesn't have a perfect answer when examining the 2.65 shot difference. Still, Fitzpatrick was the other shop's fourth-round favorite over Tyrrell Hatton and Will Zalatoris, while Reed was a “dog” to Cameron Smith, Byung-Hun Ahn, and Adam Scott. When I added it to the mix, it meant something to my model.
While this return is only a fraction of the weight in my calculations, it shifted to a 3.5% edge on Sunday as Fitzpatrick beat two of the top 20 golfers on the market at comparable prices.
Without this boost, consider this a fringe bet that barely meets the 3% threshold normally required to recommend a bet in this article.
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