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Here we provide an example of how the new model AviTeam can fill important knowledge gaps. The map above shows international aviation emissions reported to the United Nations in 2019 under the UNFCCC Convention. The map below shows international aviation emissions for 197 countries, including those that did not report in 2019, based on the AviTeam model. The bar chart at the bottom shows the top 30 companies producing emissions from international travel. credit: environmental research letters (2024). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7d
For the first time ever, researchers have used the power of big data to calculate national greenhouse gas emissions from aviation for 197 countries covered by international climate change conventions.
When countries signed the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, high-income countries were required to report aviation-related emissions. However, 151 low- and middle-income countries, including China and India, were not required to report these emissions, although they could do so voluntarily.
This is important because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change relies on countries reporting their emissions while negotiating national emissions reductions.
“Our research fills a reporting gap and is expected to inform policy and improve future negotiations,” says Dr. Jan Krenner. candidate in NTNU's Industrial Ecology Program and is the lead author of a new paper recently published. Environmental Research Letters.
New data shows that countries such as China, which do not report aviation-related emissions in 2019, were second only to the United States in terms of total aviation-related emissions.
Helen Muli, research professor of industrial ecology at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, said: “We now have a clearer picture of aviation emissions by country, including previously unreported emissions. “We will see if we can reduce emissions in the future.” program. Mr. Muri is one of Mr. Klenner's supervisors and co-author of the paper.
Will there be any big surprises?
As you might expect, the United States is at the top of the list of emitters when it comes to total aircraft emissions, both international and domestic.
“When we looked at how emissions were distributed per capita, we found that economic well-being led to increased aviation activity,” Klenner said.
The analysis also showed that when domestic emissions are calculated on a per capita basis, wealthy Norway, with a population of just 5.5 million, ranks third overall, behind the United States and Australia.
Krenner tested the model he developed for this analysis using data from Norway. He published a paper reporting those results in 2022.
You might wonder if Norway's geography, a long and narrow country with many mountains and a sparsely populated northern region, is the culprit behind this number. However, Krenner's 2022 analysis showed that 50 per cent of Norway's domestic flights operated between the country's major cities: Oslo, Trondheim, Stavanger, Bergen and Tromso.
“Norway's per capita emissions were incredibly high,” said Muri, who is also a co-author of the study. “This dataset confirms that from a Norwegian perspective, we are third in the world in terms of domestic per capita emissions, so we have a lot of work to do.”
The role of big data
Anders Hamer-Straumann, a professor in NTNU's Industrial Ecology Program and Klenner's co-supervisor, said one important aspect of this research is how big data can be used to help regulate climate change emissions. He said that this shows that it can be used for many purposes. Stroman is also a co-author of the new paper.
“I think this is a very good indication of the potential of this kind of work. We have traditionally relied on statistical offices and reporting loops that take a year or more to get this kind of information. ” he said. “This model enables on-the-fly emissions modeling and allows global aviation emissions to be calculated as they occur.”
The model, called AviTeam, will provide information for the first time to 45 least developed countries that have never measured greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. Stroman said the model provides these countries with information that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to collect.
The ability to calculate aviation emissions in near real-time could also be an important tool as the industry makes changes towards decarbonization.
“In a transition period where we're talking about introducing new fuels and new technologies, this kind of big data allows us to identify the kinds of corridors and operations where it makes sense to test those strategies first. '' Stroman said.
For more information:
Jan Klenner et al., National and International Aviation Emissions Inventories of Parties to the UNFCCC, environmental research letters (2024). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7d
Magazine information:
environmental research letters