Major League Baseball today released a trove of bat tracking data that provides interesting insight into what makes the best hitters great and what ruins the worst. With everything from bat speed to swing length to sweet-spot contact being measured, ball-tracking data will have the same profound impact on hitters as it did on pitchers.
MLB uses the Hawkeye tracking system, which places 12 cameras (including five operating at 300 frames per second) around every major league stadium, to track bats before release on the Statcast platform. We spent more than two years refining our tracking model. Measured using the sweet spot approximately 6 inches below the head of the bat, every swing of every batter is recorded with objective data that can be immediately analyzed.
The basics are: The average major league swing is 111.5 mph. The average length of a bat's trajectory from start to finish during a swing is 7.3 feet. Batters square up the ball on one-third of their pitches. Usually the fastest swings are those of the most productive players, but that's not always the case. Shohei Ohtani, the best hitter in the major leagues this season, has an average bat speed of 75.4 miles per hour. Javier Báez, the worst hitter in the major leagues this season, has an average bat speed of 125.4 miles per hour.
Just as the advent of the pitch-tracking era has changed the way we train for juice velocity and spin, the ability to measure bat speed and trajectory will similarly change the approach batters take in the future. Sho. However, for now, at this early stage, the data is pure and unadulterated. And when it comes to bat speed, you know there's one guy and then there's everyone else.
king of bat speed
When Statcast debuted in 2015 and exit velocity catapulted to the forefront of the baseball lexicon, Giancarlo Stanton, then of the Miami Marlins, topped nearly every leaderboard. There were 12 balls faster than 117 mph that season. One from Mike Trout, one from Nelson Cruz, one from Carlos Gonzalez and nine from Stanton.
The current New York Yankees slugger's bat speed numbers are equally impressive. Stanton's swing averages about 80.6 mph, nearly 3 mph faster than Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop O'Neal Cruz, who has the second-fastest swing. It's also consistently fast. Statcast characterizes any swing over 70 mph as “fast.” Just over 22% of his swings reach the 75 mph standard. Stanton's batting average of 98.4 percent is nearly 25 percent better than the next-best Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies, who swings 75 mph or more 73.9 percent of the time.
Stanton is also near the top in another category, swing length, coming in second behind Baez. Height often affects swing length, and it's no surprise that at 6-foot-6 Stanton's swing covers his 8.4 feet.
Of course, as Stanton's struggles in recent years have taught us, exit speed, and now bat speed, alone doesn't make a great hitter. Stanton had the hardest hit ball in MLB this season at 199.9 mph and had the highest average velocity of the hardest hit ball, but his batting average was only slightly above league average at .230/.283/. . .452.
Lesson learned: You can swing the fastest, but that doesn't guarantee success.
anti-stanton
On the other end of the spectrum is San Diego Padres journeyman Luis Arraez, who could add another title to his batting double. He is the slowest hitter in baseball. Arraez's 62.3 mph bat speed is more than 2 mph slower than the second-slowest player, Cleveland Guardians outfielder Stephen Kwan, and the two are probably the best players who don't have elite bat speed. He's probably the best example of what it takes to continue to be successful in the big leagues.
Arraez and Kwan are part of a team that hits short, controlled swings with incredible regularity. Arraez swings just 5.9 feet, while Kwan swings 6.4 feet. The group with bat speeds less than 68 mph and swing lengths less than 6.4 feet includes Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Bryce Turan (128 OPS or higher), Yankees outfielder Alex Verdugo (107), and Toronto Blue Jays' There's DH Justin Turner (111). Among them are highly productive offensive players.
Despite their swings, some might suggest that's the reason, but perhaps they should start treating it as if it's their fault. Arraez leads MLB by squaring up the ball on 43.9% of his swings. To determine whether a pitch is squared, the system takes two variables (bat speed and pitch velocity) and determines the maximum exit velocity. Next, take the actual EV of the batted ball and compare it to the peak. If it's at least 80% of his top-end number, he's considered squared because only balls that hit the sweet spot of his bat allow him to generate more than 80% of his velocity.
When a batter squares up the ball, his batting average is .372 and his slugging percentage is .659. Even when he's not, his batting average is .127 and his slugging percentage is .144. In other words, credit Arraez, Kwan, and the rest for being masters of the art of hitting, even if neither of them has much power.
The perfect blend of bat speed and accuracy
What do you get when you put Stanton into one of those mashup machines with Arees?
Juan Soto. Just think:
- The Yankees right fielder has the 10th-fastest bat speed of the 221 eligible players at 76.1 mph.
- He swings over 75 mph 66.2% of the time, ranking seventh.
- He has squared up 81 pitches, the fourth-most in MLB, and the second-best percentage at 50%.
- He ranks second in Blast (a metric that adds a factor of bat speed to a player's squared percentage) with 49. The Blast's top 10 players are a who's who of great hitters: Jose Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez, and Aaron Judge. , Yandy Diaz, Gunnar Henderson, Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr., Ohtani, Soto, and the next surprising No. 1.
Soto's only average swing length is 7.3 feet. He's not like Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, or Wyatt Langford, who generate great bat speed with short swings. He's also near the top of the bat speed list, unlike the majority of players who produce it with long swings.
No, Soto's work is simply amazing. And his outlier status in bat tracking data has proven his place in production as well.
The best hitter in baseball that no one knows about
He's more explosive than Soto or Ohtani.
Only four players have squared up more balls than him, and each is a multiple All-Star.
He doesn't even swing as hard as his brother, on average. But that's not the point. That's because William Contreras, Brewers catcher and younger brother of St. Louis Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras, does plenty of damage with a 114 mph effort. Contreras, 26, is not only at the top of the explosive list, but he's not particularly close either. His 57 homers are better than Soto's 49 and Ohtani's 46, and his Major League-best 34.8% explosion rate is twice the Major League average. 13.7%.
The reasons for Contreras' success are clear. He swings hard, hits the ball very hard, and doesn't have many strikeouts (less than 20% punch-out rate on the season). It's an extraordinary combination of skills, and it's MVP-caliber work for him to maintain this offensive power in every game for the Brewers, playing 33 of 40 games as a catcher.
Other performers this season whose bat skills deserve praise include:
Whose profile is alarming?
MLB attempted to begin tracking swings using Statcast at a limited number of ballparks during the 2022 season, but the league felt confident enough to release complete numbers for the first time this year. I did. Therefore, it is impossible to know exactly whose swings have become faster or slower in recent years.
Here are five players whose swing metrics through the first seven weeks of the season are cause for concern.
Javier Baez, SS, Detroit Tigers: Bat speed has never been an issue for Báez, but he has stepped it up this season. The problem, or part of the problem, is that he keeps his bat in the zone longer than anyone else, including Stanton. Báez's 8-foot-7 bat path just doesn't create as much contact as it once did, and his .172/.208/.233 line reflects that.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: Just behind Baez and Stanton in swing length is 33-year-old Arenado. Long swings are a good thing — Michael Harris II, Aaron Judge, Willie Adames, Reece Hoskins, and Adris Garcia all rank in the top 10, but pulls with far below average bats. Tough on heavy hitters. speed. Arenado has hit 109.5 mph this year and has thrived as an average hitter in poor offensive environments, but there are several other players (Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, etc.) who have found success with long swings and slow bats. ) is the only one. All three are notable because they have low detonation velocities.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: The 25-year-old has the makings of a good hitter. His average bat velocity of 75.5 mph (he ranks 17th in MLB) and his 32 shots (27th) bode well. problem? Guerrero is squaring up the ball at an anemic rate: just 21% during swings and 27% during contact. The explosion shows that Vlad will deal heavy damage if he hits the sweet spot. He's just hitting the weak side of his bat too often.
Jorge Soler, DH, San Francisco Giants: Guerrero is not very good at putting the ball in, but Soler is significantly worse. His bad speed is a notch higher than Vlad's 110km/h, but his squared rate on contact is the third lowest. The situation with the explosion is even worse. Soler is the only player in baseball who swings over 113.2 mph and doesn't have a 10% explosive rate. Perhaps it was the tightness in his right shoulder that forced him to go on the IL a week ago? That is no longer a matter for speculation. The data when Soler returns will answer that.
Brett Batty, 3B, New York Mets: At the bottom of the list is Batty, the most obvious example of the anomaly of high bat speed and poor contact. Batty's swing isn't as intense as Soler or Guerrero, but his 123.2 mph swing is certainly above average. On the other hand, his square rate on contact is an MLB-worst 18.5%, but that's not the case. It's hard to outrun Arraez with an 11 mph swing.
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