This is a risky decision by someone who doesn't have many good political or foreign policy options at the moment.
But in a sense, a long time has passed. And at the very least, it reflects the direction Biden's party has been heading in recent months.
The outpouring of support for Israel after the October 7 Hamas massacre was quickly replaced by liberal skepticism about how Israel carried out its military response. And over the past six months, we have seen the left's shift away from Israel continue almost unabated.
Perhaps the most frequently cited manifestation of this is in the relative sympathy for Israelis and Palestinians. The Democratic Party has long tilted toward the Palestinians, and a Gallup poll in early 2023 showed that the Democratic Party is increasing its sympathy for the Palestinians for the first time in the 21st century.
That changed briefly on October 7, but since then polls from The Economist and YouGov have shown a steady and fairly consistent move against the Palestinians. About 4 in 10 Americans say they are sympathetic to either side, but 34% say they are more sympathetic to Israel, up from 34% in mid-October. It has now fallen to 15%.
In October, about twice as many Democrats chose Israelis as they chose Palestinians. Currently, Democrats choosing sides choose the Palestinians by a double-digit margin.
There was an even bigger shift in the fundamentals of Biden's announcement this week: the idea that Israel has gone too far.
In late October, more Democrats (39%) said Israel's military response was “about the right” or “not harsh enough” than those who said it was “too harsh” (33%).
But Democrats again began to steadily move away from Israel. A majority of Democrats (54%) now say the Democratic Party's response is “too tough,” 30 points more than those who say it's “about right” or “not tough enough.”
Of course, just because people think Israel's actions are “too harsh” doesn't necessarily mean they want to take a tough stance or cut off aid. But even there, Democrats have gradually taken a more skeptical position.
In early November, Democrats favored keeping aid to Israel at the same level or increasing it by about 2:1, but polls over the past month have shown that many Democrats now support increasing aid to Israel. It has been shown that there is a desire for reductions.
That number rose to 48 percent in early April polls, with nearly half of Democrats wanting to cut funding to Israel.
Last week's ABC News/Ipsos poll showed a similar shift. He asked whether the US was doing “too much” to support Israel. Biggest departure from Israel since January? Some people describe themselves as “somewhat liberal.” In January, 35% of respondents said they were doing too much with Israel, but that number has now increased to 48%.
Perhaps most notably, an Economist poll last month showed Democrats agree, 53 percent to 14 percent, that “Israel is committing genocide against Palestinian civilians.” It must have been done.
(It's fair to ask whether people really know what “genocide” entails, and Americans tend to apply that label fairly broadly. But it at least suggests how far Israel has gone.) )
Considering all this, we begin to see how even a historically pro-Israel Democrat like Biden could pivot to a more hardline stance. He is not actually threatening to reduce total aid. He simply intercepts offensive weapons that could be used to invade Rafah.
While this shift may be in line with growing demographics within the party, Mr. Biden still risks losing support in key Democratic-leaning constituencies and broader voters.
After all, even these polls show that reducing support for Israel is a minority among the broader public.
According to an ABC-Ipsos poll, 38% of Americans said they supported Israel too much. And according to the latest Economist poll, only about a third of respondents said Israel's response was “too harsh” (34%) and that aid should be cut (34%).
The question now is whether Mr. Biden's warning will have the desired effect and help quell the growing fears of the American left, or whether it will simply lead to more choices among the difficult options. I wonder if it's just that.