Stocks (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) ended Monday's trading strong, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) experiencing its strongest three-day rally so far in 2024. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer, Trading Day. He highlighted how a relatively quiet few weeks of economic data releases have helped boost market sentiment.
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This post was written by angel smith
video transcript
Stocks closed in green buildings today on the back of Friday's upward momentum as Goldilocks jobs numbers boosted interest rate cut optimism. Here are the main points in today's market. Josh Schaefer, things are going a little bit better here. Yes, it's great. 2024 has three consecutive S and P 500 records, and I think the broadest lesson from that is that we did a little gut check last month. We talked a lot in April about how we were going to win. This is the first slow month since last fall. As usual, all these headwinds seem to be intensifying at once. Inflation fears are coming. Perhaps there will be a rate cut this year. What if Chairman Powell talked about raising interest rates, and was it last year or last week? Unfortunately, it appears that this was the moment when many of those concerns were put to rest, at least for now. Mr. Powell said no to considering rate hikes as the most likely scenario. Next comes the employment statistics. Wages were actually softer than people expected, easing inflation fears a bit. And here he is really ready for what you mentioned as your second point. This week has been a quiet week for economic indicators. And I think a quiet week in economic data is a welcome thing for this market at the moment. When we've spent a lot of time talking about the rise in the 10-year bond yield over the last month, we often talk about eco. With 830 data releases to drive that movement in 10 years, we're talking about what the Fed will say, what Chairman Powell will say, and what he'll say at upcoming meetings. And it wasn't what we had, it wasn't what we were trying to do. This week we have this week. So it seems like a bit of a quiet week overall in terms of eco-macro momentum. And if the returns are actually looking pretty good, that's probably a good thing. Maybe it's a little bit of a break for people to Yes, a little bit of a break. And stocks typically do better in weeks when there are no environmental data releases. So Bank of America, Bank of America released an interesting chart on this this morning. 500 a week when there are zero releases of major economic indicators. So when we talk about releasing major economic indicators, you know we're talking about the G DPC PI, the Fed meeting, the jobs report. When there are none of them, the S and P meetings have a 0.6% increase, and you can see the increase across the screen. The more events there are, the tougher it usually is for the market. So maybe a quiet week means there's a chance we'll get a little bit of an uptick because if you think about something like trying this rally, you have to circle it on your calendar for this week right now. I can't come up with a correct name. That doesn't mean they won't come. They always come out of nowhere, sometimes out of nowhere. But right now on the calendar, we're not waiting for the jobs report to be released on Friday in inflation printing, but it will be next week. So for now it's been quiet on the economic data front. Yes, there are some gains on the revenue side, but none of them are tied to large macro market movements. Yeah, those will be interesting. Their individual aspects, like Punie, are interesting as an AI story. But does that really tell us anything about the whole thing? A. I trade. I don't understand. We can debate that, but probably not? I look forward to hearing from Disney. It will be a very interesting report. But Disney, this is a Disney story, so I don't really understand. Agree. At this point, you've achieved 80% of the return on the S and P 500, and you're earning 5%. But is it like Josh? Well, if you think OK, decent economy, decent revenue. Jay Powell basically just said rate hikes are off the table. Is it a catalyst? Is it enough to move the market? I feel like this week it's probably Josh. But I would argue that you're kind of gearing up for this inflation article next week, right? Over the past few months, the CP that I've printed has smelled a bull market. Considering that, there is no problem. Oh, that's not a good outcome. That's not good. And we've been getting it consistently for the past few months. So, for me, that's a big thing that I circled. It's not tomorrow, and it won't come in two days. But I think inflation printing is one of the next big thrusts. Okay, thanks, Josh.