This week I had the opportunity to participate in a mentoring session on the future of the National Association of Flood and Stormwater Management Agencies (NAFSMA). [of] Flood risk data. This session, presented by NAFSMA in partnership with FEMA and with participation from other stakeholders, was designed to educate people about some of FEMA's missions and discuss how those missions should be addressed in the future. Did. [of] Flood risk data.
(I know you're wondering, but… [of] – More on that later. )
Although FEMA has many missions, at least four stand out in the area of ​​flood risk. (1) Disaster recovery after a storm. (2) Implementation of the National Flood Insurance Program. It is designed to provide optional programs to reduce flood risk in some areas and mandatory programs in high-risk areas. (3) Grant programs designed to bring about changes on the ground to reduce future flood risk. (4) Flood risk assessment and communication to enable communities to make wise decisions, including land use decisions. While his first three missions were very public, in my experience this fourth of his missions lacked the same level of community awareness and involvement. I think that will change.
As we FEMA watchers know, for nearly a decade, FEMA has gone from a binary approach (some areas have risks that FEMA is concerned about, others don't) to instead , use FEMA's data collection and tools to create a tiered risk profile and substantiate it. FEMA is also working to help people understand that not all flood risks are the same, even if they look the same on old FEMA maps. FEMA believes this will be another 10-year journey, one that will enable a more nuanced understanding of risk and better decision-making.
The mentoring session provided an opportunity to see some of the ways FEMA presents and utilizes the data it collects, and to learn about what FEMA envisions for the future. FEMA's data collection allows for the development of models that drill down into storm impacts at smaller and smaller grids (or nodes), recognizing differences in conditions not only on the other side of the watershed but also on the other side of the road. I did. . One example FEMA cited was approximately two properties located nearby in Florida. Both properties are at similar elevations and both were mapped as having approximately a 1% chance of wave action flooding. However, modeling showed that one property would experience 5-foot wave action and the other property would experience 10-foot wave action.
Once we understand the power of this data collected in every watershed and every community, we can begin to consider how it should be used. At this time, FEMA considers its use to be for “non-regulatory purposes.” In other words, it can be used by communities to make wise decisions about current and future land use. Data helps communities understand and manage risk. That's a pretty good goal, right?
And now, a word [of]:
Some may wonder, are we talking about future OF flood risk data or future flood risk data? The question is asked differently, but are we talking about what data will be available in the future by being collected and modeled, or by predicting things like land use change and climate change? Are we talking about incorporating it and now modeling what the data will look like? Are there any other variables that are relevant? Well, I think we're talking about both, but FEMA says that the latter (predicting future conditions) is difficult and that the science doesn't agree on everything. I admit that it is not. But even if we acknowledge that, by knowing more about what the future holds, future predictions can help us make land use decisions now. However, while there is not necessarily agreement on what or how this predictive data should be used, FEMA has concluded that predictions of future conditions cannot be used in setting today's premium rates. I made it clear. Rates should be set based on current risk, rather than the model assuming risk 10, 20, or 50 years from now.
For more information about the future of flood risk data, visit https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/future-flood-risk-data-ffrd.