Cities that could be affected by severe thunderstorms over the weekend include Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Milwaukee.
Areas from northern Texas to southern Nebraska are at the highest risk of severe storms late Thursday, with the possibility of large hail and tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. But that's just the beginning.
More severe storms are possible across Nebraska and the Corn Belt on Friday.
The most severe potential for severe weather is forecast for Saturday, with the potential for dangerous storms and severe tornadoes stretching from southern Texas to northern Michigan.
The very active weather pattern won't smolder until next Tuesday, but even that is not guaranteed. May has historically been the peak of tornado season in the United States, and the series of storms impacting the central states is likely to continue.
There are actually two Level 3 out of five danger zones. One covers the area between Garden City and Colby in northwest Kansas. That's where rotating or supercell thunderstorms are most likely to occur, with wind, hail, and potentially significant tornado threats. If the storm remains discrete and isolated, tennis ball-sized hail is possible.
The other Level 3 zone is from east of Lubbock, Texas, to near Oklahoma City. This includes Wichita Falls, Texas, Lawton, Norman and Moore, Oklahoma, and areas along HE Bailey Turnpike (Interstate 44 southwest of Oklahoma City). So a QLCS, a squall line with embedded rotational twists that can produce tornadoes, could materialize Thursday night.
The Level 2 out of 5 danger zone stretches south from northeastern Colorado to southwestern Nebraska and into the Texas Hill Country. Includes Garden City and Dodge City, Kansas. Woodward and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. and Perryton (hit by a deadly tornado last June 15), Abilene, Midland-Odessa, and Wichita Falls, Texas.
There will be two zones with an increased risk of severe weather on Friday. One will be under a low-pressure system in Nebraska that will generate more spin. This could create a rotating band of thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and southern/southwestern Iowa. That zone could include northern Missouri and possibly the Kansas City metropolitan area. Both Omaha and Kansas City are in the Storm Prediction Center's line-of-sight zone for potential strong tornadoes.
Another area to watch for several isolated rotating storms is further south along a cold front that is being dragged eastward by a low pressure system. In fact, the level 2 out of 5 risk extends to Tulsa and Dallas.
An enhanced risk zone, Level 3 out of 5, was already in place on Saturday, covering much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. Includes Kansas City, Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, and Wichita Falls, Texas.
A second low pressure system will approach from the west. The atmosphere will be refilled with moisture and storm fuel. If you have the ingredients, you have the ingredients to prepare for a significant weather event with the potential for multiple severe tornadoes.
However, morning thunderstorms could gobble up some of the storm's fuel, reducing the fuel available for the afternoon storm. Forecasters are working to understand that possibility.
“If a supercell persists in warm areas into the late afternoon and evening, the threat of powerful tornadoes may increase over time,” the Storm Prediction Center wrote. Flooding is particularly likely in eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, and southeastern Kansas, where storms can train or move through the same area repeatedly.
Slightly less severe storms are likely to continue Sunday from northwest Chicago along the cold front of the second storm system to near Dallas.