More than 50 elections are scheduled around the world in 2024, and approximately 2 billion people will head to the polls by the end of the year.
There has never been a better time for state-backed actors to try new methods to influence elections, polarize society, and destabilize rivals across the board.
In a new Mandiant report titled “Poll: Cyber Threats to Elections Around the World,” researchers assess with high confidence that state sponsors pose the greatest threat to this year's elections.
Actors with ties to Russia and Iran
2016 was the last big year for election interference campaigns, especially for Russia. Russia is alleged to have interfered in both the Brexit referendum that year and the US presidential election, possibly under a scheme called “Project Rakta.”
But 2024 presents adversaries with another opportunity to test the techniques they have honed since then, to influence voter opinion and destabilize common sympathizers and security-minded multinational organizations. It will open up new and innovative ways to elect people who will become leaders.
Information collected by Mandiant on past elections shows that election campaigns and voters have been hit hardest by cyber threat activity, with news organizations, social media platforms, interest groups and donors, and political parties themselves facing cyber threat activity. have been shown to be the most likely victims of
Data theft, distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, hacking and leak operations, and various information manipulation (IO) campaigns using social media can all be used to influence election campaigns and voters. are ranked as some of the highest tactics. Mandiant assesses that these could potentially be used in multi-layered campaigns that seek to amplify the effects of each other.
Mandiant emphasized that DDoS attacks are effective in undermining trust in infrastructure, especially when used in long-term operations, and the Russian Intelligence Directorate (GRU) is using DDoS attacks against Ukraine to create panic in preparation for an invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine.
Mandiant assesses that tampering with electronic voting machines and cyber-attacks on the organizations that manufacture the hardware and software used in electronic voting machines are highly disruptive; Such a situation has not been observed to occur. The likelihood of this happening is assessed as low.
Mandiant said a vigilant public and experienced advocates are the best defense against election interference, and understanding the complex web of threats to elections, along with hardening infrastructure against cyberattacks. said it could help blunt the influence of state-sponsored actors on elections.
Jamie Collier, Mandiant Senior Threat Intelligence Advisor EMEA EMEA at Google Cloud, provided some perspective on the types of threats Western countries will face. “In the run-up to the European Parliament elections, Russia remains the most serious threat to Europe. Russian operations will likely take place across Europe, seeking to undermine support for Ukraine, NATO, and the EU. APT44, etc. The Russian-aligned group has a combined track record of espionage, sabotage, and disinformation.
“This means Europe needs to not only prepare for different cyber risks, but also understand how they connect. Hacking and breach operations are one example of this in action. “Sensitive information stolen through network intrusions increases the effectiveness of subsequent information operations that can leverage authentic documents to maximize public disruption.'' Collier continued.
“Information manipulation and destructive cyber campaigns are successful when their impact is cumulative. This makes an objective analysis of election cyber threats critical. Understanding Threats to Elections provides an opportunity to build a more tailored and proactive security posture, allowing democracies to meet these challenges head-on.”