Changes
Because these pieces are getting so long, I’ve decided, in consultation with Jim, to not recap games in this space, but instead to put recaps into the next day’s SnakeBytes.
Today, we’re looking at two players not regarded as prospects who might be trending up, and one prospect trending down.
Visalia: Rio Britton, LHP.
Britton was the 15th round draft pick out of NC State, where he wasn’t particularly successful in 22 appearances in his one season. But he did show improved strikeout numbers while decreasing his walks. Prior to that, he was much more successful in terms of results in 59 appearances at Oregon. He didn’t pitch last year after getting drafted, and made his professional debut on April 6th at Inland Empire. He’s since made four further appearances, with the plan being for him to work two innings at a time. That went well as he struck out four against the Giants on April 9th, but his fourth and fifth appearances have not gone well. He’s given up seven runs on seven hits and seven walks.
So why am I watching Britton? When his slider is working, it’s a great pitch. He needs to work on command. But there are pieces there, and it will be interesting to see what the Diamondbacks can get out of him. They’ve had success with other arms taken in the later rounds of last year’s draft, and it would be nice if Britton could join that club.
Hillsboro: Gavin Conticello, 1B/RF
You won’t find Conticello on any of the top prospect lists, but all the 2021 draftee from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, has done this year has been the best bat in Hillsboro. And it’s not been close. His OPS is over 300 points higher than Jack Hurley in second place, he has four home runs (three more than any other Hop), and only Christian Cerda and Andrew Pintar have drawn more walks. Yes, his BABIP of .387 is high, but it’s not extremely high. He’s a left handed bat who has taken some time to develop, but if he continues on his current track, he’ll be on prospect lists soon. Baseball America put him on their list of 20 hottest prospects for the week before last, and he followed that up with another solid week.
Gavin has yet to turn 21; his birthday is in June. This makes him one of the youngest players in the Northwest League. He had two mostly disappointing seasons split between the complex and Visalia, but discovered a power stroke last year, hitting 17 home runs. Still, though, his slash of .221/.311/.417 was far from impressive. So far this year, it looks like his batting has improved, substantially. The issue is finding him a position. He played mostly third base his first couple of seasons, but was clearly not a long-term solution there. He played some first base, and this year, has four starts at first and nine in right field, where his play is questionable. He does have some speed (he stole 12 bases last year and already has three this year) so he may adjust and become good enough to handle a corner outfield spot, but right now, I’d say that his most likely long-term home is first base. He’s listed at 6’3” and 195, so he has the size for the position and also the potential to grow into even more power as he matures.
The Diamondbacks do have a bit of success with eighth round picks. Only one of Hazen’s eighth round picks has reached the majors (Dominic Canzone) but other eighth round picks the Diamondbacks signed and went on to good careers are Chris Capuano, Brad Keller, Brandon Medders, and a couple of guys named Webb and Goldschmidt. If Conticello becomes the 15th Diamondbacks 8th round pick to reach the majors, that will be an accomplishment in itself, but he does have the potential to become a regular. Even if he doesn’t reach the majors, he does have the honor of having hit a home run off of Shohei Ohtani last spring.
Visalia: Druw Jones, CF
Druw Jones is, without a doubt, the player in the system with the highest upside. If he were to be called up tomorrow, he would provide the best center field defense, but because his arm is substantially better than every other outfielder on the roster, he might wind up playing right field. He would be one of the fastest players on the roster, likely the fastest not named Corbin Carroll. From a defensive perspective, he has been everything the Diamondbacks could have hoped when drafting him.
Unfortunately, the rules would require him to bat.
And batting is where Jones has a problem. The stats are dismal: .171/.271/.268 with 26 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances. That’s far worse than what was a disappointing season for him last year.
But the process is more important than the stats.
Watching the Visalia game on Thursday night, as my wife waited on tenterhooks for the latest T-Swift album, I saw something in his swing that I had never seen before.
Few players in Low-A have a swing that looks like a major league swing. Major league swings are shorter and with a greater sense of purpose; they are swung by a player who views that bat as an extra appendage, entirely under his control, and containing untold power. Low-A swings, on the other hand, often look like a high school player trying to hit a home run, which makes sense, because that is what many of these players were even in the post-COVID world. Two high-upside prospects, Jakey Josepha and Anderdson Rojas, fall into this type of swinging from time to time. They know better, but much like Corbin Carroll’s attempted swing change last season, it takes time. They will either get it and grow into their potential, or they will not and probably not make it out of A ball.
When I saw Jones swing on Thursday night, I saw something more akin to what we used to see in the age of the National League, before Manfred killed it: a pitcher. His attitude at the plate looks like a pitcher.
This is new for Jones. I went back and looked at some of his at-bats last year. His swing in those at-bats was above-average for an A-ball player. And I don’t believe I can embed any video from MiLB.tv in here, but while he is still doing similar things with his hands, his body weight is moving toward the third-base dugout. I cannot be 100% certain that I am correct; the view from behind home plate would be superior to the view from behind the pitcher for such things. But what is certain is that Jones looks entirely lost at the plate. His walks are mostly because of the pitcher being wild, rather than his judgment. In one case, he seemed to think he had been struck out on a 3-2 pitch, turning towards the dugout before realizing that the umpire had not called him out. (To be fair, it looked like a strike to me, as well.)
At this point, the Diamondbacks have to decide whether it is better to let Jones continue to fail at the plate in the California League, or bring him back to the complex for intensive instruction. He is a player that, if he could be an average bat, would be an extremely valuable piece, such as Kevin Kiermaier. I’m slightly concerned that pitchers in Visalia are getting spoiled by the level of defense behind them. The defense in Visalia is, on the whole, higher in quality than the defense at most of the other levels, and Jones is a huge part of that. His ceiling remains becoming a star player. But his floor is a player who never makes it out of A ball, and he’s getting perilously close to that.
It seems that the Diamondbacks may have felt the same way, as Jones was Sir-Not-Appearing-In-This-Game the last couple of nights. Hopefully they get it sorted and he can begin reaching some of his potential at the plate.
Baseball America expressed concern at the start of the season based on his placement. J.J. Cooper looked at 140 prep bats drafted in the first round from 2000-2019, and of the 48 who started their second season in Low-A, only three have gone on to have successful careers. (Brandon Nimmo, Aaron Hicks, and our own Randal Grichuk; all fine players, but none of whom had the ceiling of Jones.) To make it more concerning, all three of them were doing mostly fine offensively; none of them had the slow start of Jones. It’s too early to label him a bust, but the clock is ticking.
Batter of the Week: Adrian Del Castillo, C/DH, Reno
I do not think I’ve ever selected a player as batter of the week who had a week like Del Castillo’s. From his final plate appearance on Wednesday through Friday, he went 0-for-10. The rest of the time, he went 10-for-19, with four doubles and a home run. Batting leadoff most of the time, a new role for him, he simply demolished the baseball most of the time. His OPS for the year stands at 1.111. Yes, it’s the PCL. But he’s demolished baseballs in Tacoma as well as at higher elevations. And exit velocity doesn’t care about elevation. Nine of his 29 at-bats resulted in exit velocities of over 100 MPH, and another clocked in at 99.9. If he keeps this up for a while longer, he’ll have to be on the shortlist for a call-up the next time the Diamondbacks need another lefty bat.
Pitcher of the Week: Zach Barnes, RHP, Amarillo/Reno
Barnes didn’t appear for Amarillo this week, but he started the week in AA. Then, as part of the first set of roster moves that brought Logan Allen up, he went to Reno. He tossed a scoreless inning on Friday night. Then, the second set of roster moves left the Aces shorthanded, as Slade Cecconi had to go to San Francisco to start for the Diamondbacks. That put Konnor Pilkington in to start for the Aces on short rest, and it didn’t go well. So, trailing 6-1 in the first inning, Barnes relieved Pilkington. He struck out Jack López to end the first inning. He set the Bees down in order in the second. He allowed a walk and a hit-by-pitch in the third, but struck out two (including Hunter Dozier) in a game that had become closer.
He was replaced by Brandon Hughes to begin the fourth, but the Aces being able to come back was largely due to Barnes not allowing the Bees to pile on. While he was pitching, the Aces made it a two-run game.
Draft Update
Mock drafts for baseball might be worth even less than mock drafts for football. This is particularly true with a team picking 29th. So rather than look at specific players or strategies that might be used, I think it’s more worthwhile to look at the class of player who might be available. Names are used as examples, but that doesn’t mean that these players are at all likely.
The Diamondbacks have four picks on the first day (unless the draft schedule is changed.) 29, 31, 35, and 64. They have the tenth largest pool. So they can use any number of strategies. But players will fit into one of these categories, or quite possibly all of them.
The prep position player with a tool they love. Caleb Bonemer, a shortstop from Michigan, is an example of this. He’s a solid bat, although his swing might need some adjustment. But he’s got the arm to easily stick on the left side of the infield and has a combination of bat control and power that is better than just about every prep bat in the class. If a player like this is still available for any of the first three picks, he’ll need an above-slot deal to sign.
The solid college bat who lacks a position. Christian Moore, a second baseman from Tennessee, is an example here. He’s been solid with the bat, although his strikeout rate is concerning, and the seeming inability of the Diamondbacks to fix strikeout problems of recent draftees might cause them to steer clear. But Moore has power and size. He’s listed at 6’1” and 210, but is limited positionally. An recent example of the Diamondbacks going this route would be in drafting Gino Groover and Ivan Melendez.
The college arm that was great last year. Drew Beam of Tennessee would be an example here. After two great seasons his production has dropped off somewhat this year, which might cause him to fall to the Diamondbacks.
The toolsy player who blows them away but has a hole in his game. Dakota Jordan of Mississippi State is the perfect example here, and not just because I get to see him in person. He hits the ball as hard as anyone. He can run. He’s built like the football player he was, and he’s been nicknamed “Baby Bo.” He’s the player most likely to hit the ball 480 feet in the majors, but also the player most likely to strike out half of the time. His kryptonite has been sliders, but he’s done a better job laying off of them this year. Since this is only his second year focusing on baseball, it’s easy to think his pitch recognition and control of the strike zone can improve. His defense will also likely improve. His arm strength might not be good enough for right field at the next level, but he’s shown flashes and the Diamondbacks haven’t hesitated to draft outfielders who struggle with arm strength.
The guy who gets drafted just for fun. I put this category in here just to bring up Jurrangelo Cijntje, a switch pitcher also at Mississippi State. I really doubt that he’s hit the 97 he’s been reported at from the left side, and he’s almost entirely phased out throwing left handed in recent games, but from the right side he throws three pitches: a fastball with decent command, and a slider and changeup that are both just ok pitches. From the left he throws a fastball, slider, and curve with less command but with arguably more movement.