stranded airline passengers A flood-soaked cat was seen clinging to a car door handle in a remarkable moment in Dubai this week as historic levels of rain flooded the normally dry city. Claims are quickly spreading that the floods were caused by cloud-seeding techniques used extensively in the United Arab Emirates to increase rainfall.
But is that really the responsibility?
Daniel SwainClimate scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, said that to get to the bottom of the “record-breaking extreme rainfall” we need to understand the science and methodology behind the phenomenon.
“Currently, online discussions include the types of human activities that are likely to have actually had an impact (greenhouse effect) and those that have actually been the focus of online conversations to date (cloud seeding).” There is a disconnect between our collective understanding of our ability to actively influence weather at different spatial and temporal scales, and what this means for our lives. he said in an emailed statement.
What is cloud seeding?
Ever since the heavy rains in Dubai, many have questioned whether cloud seeding was the culprit. But what is cloud seeding and how exactly does it work?
Cloud seeding is a technique used to improve precipitation. Scientists do this by injecting into the atmosphere tiny particles called atomic nuclei that attach to clouds, according to the Desert Research Institute.
“These nuclei provide the basis for snowflakes to form. Once a cloud is seeded, the newly formed snowflake grows rapidly and falls from the cloud to the ground, forming a snowpack. and increases river flow,” the institute said.
Instead of precipitation in the form of snow, cloud seeding programs are increasing rainfall in the Middle East.
Scientists typically do cloud seeding in two ways: using ground-based generators or dispersing atomic nuclei via aircraft.
What caused the rain in Dubai?
But was the rain in Dubai due to cloud seeds?
“Did cloud seeding play a role? Probably not,” Swain said. “But what about climate change? Probably yes!”
Record-breaking heat waves continue every month around the world, with 2023 becoming the hottest year on record worldwide. Scientists have found that as temperatures rise, evaporation increases, resulting in storms like the one in Dubai becoming more frequent and intense. These conditions also promote other extreme weather events, such as: droughtopposing forces are likely to be forced into violent confrontations that will put a strain on the community without appropriate adaptation.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a senior research fellow at the Columbia Climate School, told CBS News that he doesn't think there's any evidence at this point that cloud formation has exceeded the threshold for heavy rain.
“This event has been predicted for quite some time, and given the heavy rainfall that was well predicted, I think it is unlikely that the cloud seeding operation will go ahead,” he said.
of the people National Emergency and Crisis Management Agency It issued a weather warning on Monday, before the storm arrived, urging people to follow local instructions from authorities and to stay at home and only go out in emergencies.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, gave a more definitive answer, telling The Associated Press: “It's definitely not cloud seeding.”
“If that happens cloud seeding“They'll always have water,” he said. If we can do that, I think we can solve many more difficult problems than we currently have. rain falls over dubai. ”
He said the deluge “further speaks to the question of what resilience measures are built into standard operating procedures in urban planning.”
“There is a risk of flash flooding almost everywhere on the planet,” he says. “However, this is not the type of extreme event that occurs most often, so it may be lower on the priority list when decisions need to be made around infrastructure, resilience or wider urban development. There is also.
How bad were the floods in Dubai?
More than 5.59 inches of rain fell in Dubai in 24 hours. Half a foot of rain may not seem like a big deal numerically, but it is more than the city sees in a typical year, and other parts of the UAE have seen even higher amounts.
The state-run WAM news agency said it was a “historic weather event”, adding that it exceeded “any event recorded since data collection began in 1949”.
Although Dubai is normally dry, heavy rains like this one were unprecedented, and the city's infrastructure was not in place. Dubai International Airport, one of the world's busiest airports, had to temporarily suspend operations after its drainage system burst. One airline passenger told Reuters that many were waiting more than 12 hours for travel to resume. Footage from the airport shows planes taxiing through eerie flooding.
“We had more than a year's worth of rain in just a few hours,” Kruczkiewicz told CBS News. “And why that's important to understand is that when you see this much rainfall in semi-arid regions, the soil is not designed to filter water as quickly as in other regions. …That's not necessary. If you have a lot of water in a short period of time, or if it rains, you're going to have a big problem.”
Is cloud seeding effective?
According to the Desert Research Institute, how effective cloud seeding is depends on the specific project in which it is used. The institute cited several studies and said it helped increase overall snow cover by at least 10% annually in some regions. Another study found that his five-year project in New South Wales, Australia, increased snowfall by 14%.
The UAE's National Meteorological Center has launched a Rainfall Enhancement Science Research Program to advance the technology, stating that for arid regions around the world, cloud seeding is a “viable and cost-effective complement to existing water supplies.” There is a possibility.” Many regions outside the Middle East also suffer from water scarcity issues. Columbia, Mexico and Hawaii.