You now have high-resolution model data to study cloud cover predictions during a total solar eclipse. Here's what the latest data shows:
AUSTIN, Texas — April 8th is the day we've all been waiting for. The total solar eclipse will pass directly over central Texas, creating a 4-minute dazzling totality over portions of the KVUE area. Of course, the question on everyone's mind is: Will the weather be OK?
Unfortunately, the forecast doesn't seem ideal for viewing the eclipse, but that doesn't necessarily mean you won't be able to see it at all.
So let's start with some basic predictions. Monday is expected to be mostly cloudy, but there is growing confidence in the possibility of strong storms across Central Texas in the afternoon and evening. Our main concern is the possibility of large hail storms, but most models indicate that these storms will arrive after the total solar eclipse. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 80s.
Below are the latest forecasts for total cloud cover across Central Texas. Some of these may change as we get closer to Monday.
RELATED: Click here for the latest forecast for the total solar eclipse in Central Texas
I am confident that there will be high clouds in the sky around totality time on Monday. Totality in Austin is 1:36 p.m. These tall, thin clouds create a more filtered view of the eclipse, but don't completely block the view. Even if you end up with only high clouds, you'll still be able to see some pretty spectacular views here in Central Texas. This scenario is very likely to play out in many parts of the Hill Country.
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Where you start to run into more problems is when the clouds are low. These low clouds completely block visibility. It will still be dark, probably even darker than on a sunny day, but you won't be able to see the sun except through small breaks in the clouds. There will be widespread low clouds Monday morning, but what we need is for those to break by early afternoon.
To be clear, a solar eclipse will occur even if there is low cloud cover. It will also be dark during totality, perhaps even darker than a clear sky. However, clouds will prevent us from seeing the solar corona, Bailey's beads, and some of the other very notable features of a total solar eclipse.
This may happen in some regions, as the latest high-resolution model data shows. Unfortunately, low clouds are likely to be most stubborn over parts of the Austin metro and the I-35 corridor. Low clouds will make viewing conditions even worse, but there may be breaks in these low clouds, and you should be able to catch glimpses periodically. It is impossible to determine exactly where the cloud break will occur until shortly before the event begins. At this time, we believe there is a 70% chance of low clouds, especially along I-35.
In addition to the possibility of cloud cover, the KVUE weather team is currently monitoring the possibility of strong storms impacting Central Texas on the day of the eclipse. Most forecast models have the storm arriving in the late afternoon or early evening, but there are still several days to go, so that timeline could certainly change.
All of Central Texas is at a “light” risk for severe storms (Level 2 out of 5), with large hail being the main concern on Monday and Monday night.
Therefore, cloudy skies are expected overall. Although the sky isn't clear everywhere, that doesn't mean you can't see the solar eclipse clearly.
Here at KVUE, we do everything we can to provide a great viewing experience. We'll bring you updates over the weekend.
The 7-day weather forecast can be found below.
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