This is part 1 of a 2 part series Massachusetts Institute of Technology News A special feature examining new job creation in the United States since 1940, based on new research by Ford economics professor David Autor. Part 2 can be found here.
In 1900, Orville and Wilbur Wright listed their occupation on their U.S. census forms as “merchant, bicyclist.” Three years later, they made their famous first airplane flight in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. So, in the next U.S. Census in 1910, the brothers each identified themselves as “inventors of the airplane.” However, there were not many such people at that time, and it was not until 1950 that “airplane designer” became recognized as a census category.
Their case may be unique, but the story of the Wright brothers teaches us something important about employment in the United States today. As evidenced by the U.S. Census form, most jobs in the United States are new jobs. In other words, a major new study on U.S. employment led by MIT economist David Auter finds that the vast majority of jobs are in occupations that only emerged widely after 1940. Thing.
“It's estimated that about 6 out of 10 jobs people do today didn't exist in 1940,” says Orter, co-author of a newly published paper detailing this finding. says Mr. “Many of the things we do today, no one was doing back then. Most modern jobs require expertise that didn't exist then and wasn't appropriate at the time.”
This finding, which covers the period 1940 to 2018, has several larger implications. First, many new jobs are being created by technology. But not all. Some come from consumer demand, such as jobs in health services for an aging population.
On another front, the study shows significant disparities in recent new job creation. During the first 40 years, from 1940 to 2018, most new jobs were in middle-class manufacturing and office jobs, but in the last 40 years, new jobs have declined. Production often involves either high-paying professional jobs or low-paying service jobs.
Finally, this study brings new data to the difficult question of the extent to which technology creates new jobs and to what extent it replaces jobs.
The paper, “New Frontiers: Origins and Content of New Works, 1940-2018,” Quarterly Journal of Economics. Co-author is Ford Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Caroline Chin, economics doctoral student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Anna Salomons, Professor of Economics, Utrecht University. Brian Seegmiller has been at SM for 20 years, has a Ph.D. for 22 years, and is an assistant professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School.
“This is the most difficult and most detailed project I have ever undertaken in my research career,” Auter added. “I feel like I’ve made progress in areas I didn’t think I could make.”
“Technician, Nail”
To conduct this study, the scholars used natural language processing techniques to dig deep into government data on employment and patents, identify relevant descriptors within patent and census data, and identify innovation and subsequent employment. Connected creation. The U.S. Census Bureau tracks new job descriptions provided by respondents, such as those written down by the Wright brothers. Each decade's employment index lists approximately 35,000 occupations and 15,000 of their specialized variations.
Many new jobs are directly the result of new technologies creating new forms of work. For example, “computer applications engineer” was first codified in 1970, “circuit layout designer” debuted in his 1990, and “solar power electrician” debuted in his 2018.
“So many forms of expertise are technology and service specific,” Auter says. “This is a big problem quantitatively.”
Furthermore, he added: “When we rebuild the power grid, we're not just going to create an electrician, we're going to create a new profession that's equivalent to solar power, a solar engineer. Eventually that will become a specialty. The first purpose of our research is to measure. [this kind of process]the second is to show what it reacts to and how it occurs. Third, it shows how automation will affect employment. ”
Regarding the second point, however, innovation is not the only way to create new jobs. Consumer wants and needs also create new jobs. As the paper points out, “tattoo artist” became a U.S. Census occupation in his 1950 year, “hypnotherapist” was codified in his 1980 year, and “conference planner” became a US Census occupation in his 1990 year. It was codified in Nor is the day the U.S. Census Bureau was codified. their role. Once a sufficient number of people filled those jobs, the Department recognized the jobs as a substantive employment category. For example, “Technician, Nail” became a category in his 2000 year.
“It’s not just technology that creates new jobs, it’s new demands,” Auter says. The aging of the baby boomer generation may create a new role for the personal health aide, which is now emerging as a plausible occupation.
Overall, since 1940, approximately 74 percent of the region's jobs have been created among “professionals,” who are essentially specialized white-collar workers. The “medical services” category is the personal services side of health care, including general medical assistants. , about 85% of jobs were created at the same time, such as occupational therapy assistant. In contrast, in the manufacturing sector, the figure is only 46%.
Differences depending on degree
The fact that some employment sectors have relatively more new jobs than others is one of the hallmarks of the U.S. employment landscape over the past 80 years. And one of the most striking things about this period, from a work standpoint, is that this period consists of two quite different periods of his 40 years.
During the first 40 years, from 1940 to about 1980, the United States became a unique postwar manufacturing powerhouse, with an increase in production-related jobs and an increase in middle-income clerical and other clerical jobs centered around these industries. .
But over the past 40 years, manufacturing has begun to decline in the United States, and automation has begun to eliminate administrative tasks. From 1980 to the present, he sees two major avenues for new jobs: high-end, specialized trade jobs and various types of low-wage service sector jobs. As the authors write in their paper, the United States is experiencing “an overall polarization of the occupational structure.”
It corresponds to the level of education. The study found that employees with at least some college experience are approximately 25% more likely to work in a new job than those with less than a high school diploma.
“The real concern is who the new work is being made for,” Auter said. “In the first period, from 1940 to 1980, there were a lot of jobs created for people without degrees, a lot of clerical and production work, middle-skill jobs. , more and more new jobs for college graduates are in professional fields, and more and more new jobs for non-university graduates are in service industries.”
Still, Autor added: We are currently in a period of technological transition with potentially significant consequences. ”
At this time, it is unclear how and to what extent evolving technologies such as artificial intelligence will impact the workplace. However, this is also the main question addressed in current research studies. In other words, to what extent does new technology increase employment by creating new or viable jobs? And to what extent does new technology replace existing jobs through automation? colleagues presented new findings on this topic in their paper. This will be outlined in Part 2 of this book. Massachusetts Institute of Technology News series.
Support for the research was provided in part by the Carnegie Corporation. Google; Gaku Institute; MIT Future of Work Task Force. Schmidt Futures; Smith Richardson Foundation. and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.