USD/INR is once again showing solid correlation with the overall foreign exchange market as the currency pair has fallen over the past week.
- USD/INR has shown potential for a decline over the past week, which will attract the attention of speculators on the currency pair.
- USD/INR is around 82.7200 at the time of writing, depending on the bid and ask prices displayed by the brokerage platform.
- Traders of this currency pair should note that USD/INR remains lightly traded in the global foreign exchange market. Therefore, you should enter the market with a solid entry order, especially if you want to take advantage of quick-hit positions.
USD/Indian Rupee's healthy correlation with the broader foreign exchange market is a solid sign for the currency pair, as the US dollar is also depreciating against many other major currencies. Today, the US releases important inflation numbers through the Consumer Price Index results. Last month's inflation results from CPI statistics caused nearly two days of confusion for Forex traders, so today's report should not be taken lightly.
Day traders are looking for an opinion on what will happen in the next moment and are looking for suggestions on price movements that they can use to profit from. However, short-term prospects are risky, as timing the exact moment when a currency pair suddenly moves is often wild guesswork. USD/INR has been in full-fledged decline since mid-December, but a reversal to the upside is quite difficult to predict.
The medium-term outlook for the US dollar remains weak. This forecast is based on the belief that the US Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering the federal funds rate later this spring or early summer. Today's US CPI data will be part of the outlook the Federal Reserve uses to determine the timing of interest rate cuts. The Fed will not cut interest rates at its next FOMC meeting next week.
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Day traders looking for momentum from further declines in USD/INR should take note. Daily gaps still occur within USD/INR. This currency pair also tends to suddenly spike after very tight trades, and this is due to large trades being made through financial institutions acting on behalf of large corporate clients. The Reserve Bank of India cannot be forgotten in this volatile situation. The Reserve Bank of India believes in maintaining strong supervision of USD/INR.
- While today's US CPI results will be felt, a big reaction from USD/INR may emerge early tomorrow morning after the results are processed by Indian financial institutions.
- The 82.7000 mark may be considered as an important support for USD/INR technically. Although this mark has been challenged and we have seen lows around 82.6300 and 82.6250 over the past few days, we have not seen any serious sustained speculative activity trading below the 82.7000 ratio since August 2023.
Current resistance: 82.7410
Current support: 82.7100
Highest goal: 82.8050
Lower target: 82.6520
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