Investors in American Public Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:APEI) will be rubbing its hands together today after its stock price rose 27% to US$13.63 in the week following the release of its full-year results. That was a great result. Sales of $601 million matched analysts' expectations, but statutory losses were 14% smaller than expected, with American Public Education reporting a loss of $2.94 per share. The analysts have updated their earnings model following these results, but it would be good to know whether they think there's been a big change to the company's outlook, or if it's business as usual. So we've gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what expectations suggest for next year.
See the latest analysis on American public education.
Considering the latest results, the latest consensus for American Public Education from 4 analysts is for revenue of US$614.1m in 2024. If this were met, it would mean revenue grew by 2.3% over the last 12 months. American Public Education is expected to report statutory profit of US$0.55 per share, with earnings expected to improve. Ahead of this report, analysts had been modeling 2024 revenue of US$613.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.60. The analysts appear to have become slightly more negative on the business following the latest results. Given that next year's earnings per share numbers will drop slightly.
Analysts revised next year's earnings forecasts, but also raised the consensus price target by 73% to US$15.00, suggesting the revised estimates do not signal weakness in the business' long-term future. are doing.
You can also look at the bigger picture, including how these forecasts compare to past performance and whether forecasts are more or less bullish compared to other companies in its industry. It is clear that US public education's revenue growth is expected to slow significantly, with revenues expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% through the end of 2024. This compares to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. For comparison, other companies in the industry that are covered by analysts are expected to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's clear that while revenue growth is expected to slow, the broader industry is expected to grow faster than American public education.
conclusion
Most importantly, the analysts have revised down their earnings per share estimates, indicating a clear drop in sentiment following the results. Happily, the analysts also reaffirmed their earnings forecasts, suggesting things are in line with expectations. However, our data suggests that American public education's returns are expected to be worse than the industry as a whole. We note an increase in the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we can't quickly draw conclusions about American public education. Long-term profitability is far more important than next year's profits. We have estimates for him through 2025 from multiple American public education analysts and can be viewed for free on our platform here.
However, you should always think about the risks.Good example we found One warning sign for American public education. you should know.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodologies, and articles are not intended to be financial advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. We aim to provide long-term, focused analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest announcements or qualitative material from price-sensitive companies. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.