When President Biden made Michigan one of the first states on the Democratic presidential nominating calendar, he increased the political clout of the populous and diverse battleground state.
The decision, more than a year ago, is the first in the party since Biden's election, as protests over Biden's support for Israel threaten to upend what allies had expected to be a simple primary campaign campaign. This became the most important test of the country's position.
Biden remains widely expected to win by a wide margin in Michigan's Democratic primary on Tuesday. But a local campaign to persuade Michiganders to vote “irresponsible” is a sign of the resistance he faces among Arab Americans, young voters, progressives and other Democrats over his stance on the Gaza war. will be measured.
A large number of “uncommitted” votes would alert his campaign nationally, and even in Michigan, a state he won in 2020 but where polls show weakness against former President Donald J. Trump. It will cause alarm. By contrast, a lower number would give Biden and his Democratic allies new confidence that he can weather tensions and focus on campaign priorities like the economy and abortion rights. It will be.
The lack of reliable polling made the results uncertain, contributing to the primary being a sweaty night for Biden's allies.
“We're going to look at Democratic turnout. That'll tell us if we need to worry,” Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens said in an interview Monday. “We'll find out how deep this is on Wednesday.”
Republicans are also holding primaries, but on Saturday, far more delegates will be up for grabs at a nominating convention, or convention, hosted by state Republicans who are at war with the party. Trump is the heavy favorite in both races over his last remaining primary rival, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
More than 1 million people have already cast early and absentee ballots in Michigan's primary, according to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. But the data does not reveal how ballots were distributed in each party's primary.
Here's what to watch in Michigan's primary.
How many Democratic votes will be cast as “uncommitted” votes?
Listen to Michigan, an Arab-American-led group that launched a dedicated campaign three weeks ago, has set a modest goal of 10,000 votes.
For context, the past two Democratic presidential primaries in Michigan, which featured solid and competitive fields, each had about 20,000 “noncommit” votes.
Mr. Biden faces only a token challenge from Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, and the “uncommitted” tally is based on complaints against Mr. Biden over Gaza policy and other internal grievances. It would be interpreted as a vote of confidence.
Our Revolution, a progressive group started by supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, has set a goal of 10 percent of single-member districts. (Sanders himself supports Biden, and a spokesperson says he denies campaigning for uncommitment.)
Biden's allies tried to stem the momentum against him in the final stages of the campaign. Pro-Israel groups introduced a series of digital ads supporting the president and warning that the no-strings-attached vote would help Trump. Biden on Monday said he hoped Israel would halt military operations in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of at least some of the more than 100 hostages held by Hamas and that a ceasefire could be reached within a week. said.
“My national security adviser says it's close, it's close, it's not over yet,” he told reporters in New York. “We hope that a ceasefire will be in place by next Monday.”
Mr. Biden's campaign has declined to commit to any preliminary predictions beyond affirming that Mr. Biden will win, and the views of Michigan's leaders are similarly predicted. But his allies in Michigan and beyond are bracing for a potentially tough night, with some of the more pessimistic saying it could reach double digits if “not committed.” Suggests.
Does the Biden team's relatively weak presence in Michigan matter?
The Biden campaign sought to improve its performance in South Carolina, a state the president has put at the forefront of the party's nominating calendar, by hiring a corps of surrogates that included Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader. They were dispatched to the state to promote the situation. support. Vice President Kamala Harris wrapped up her campaign on the eve of the primary with a spirited rally in front of hundreds of supporters.
The Biden team's footprint in Michigan has lightened.
Harris' final appearance of the primary season in Michigan, where she met with nine allies in Grand Rapids last week, did not allow protesters in Gaza to disrupt her focus on abortion rights. I had no choice but to take this action out of concern. Biden last visited the state on February 1, speaking at a small rally with autoworkers union workers and stopping at a restaurant. Protesters demonstrated outside his event anyway.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has attended six events for Biden this month, and her political action committee has hosted nearly 20 more, but has stumbled in favor of Biden in Michigan. The most prominent outside campaign agent was Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Minnesota congressman and campaign co-chair, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who currently lives in Michigan, also promoted Biden in the state.
The White House sent a team of senior officials to meet privately with Arab American officials in Dearborn this month, where a senior foreign policy aide criticized the administration's foreign policy and public messaging on the Gaza conflict. acknowledged.
Other Biden representatives were also asked to travel to Michigan, but they declined because they did not want to interact with protesters in Gaza, according to people familiar with the negotiations. The Biden campaign declined to comment for this article.
California Rep. Ro Khanna, typically one of Biden's most vocal supporters, traveled to the state without Biden campaign branding but was allowed to visit. He hosted a “ceasefire town hall” on the University of Michigan's campus and appeared afterwards with Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a member of the state's congressional delegation who supported the “non-commitment” campaign.
Will “uncommitted” voters come back to Biden in November?
The movement's leaders say they don't want to hurt Biden in the general election, but they hope to convince him that his stance on Israel will hurt him politically before he corrects himself.
“Biden risks losing Michigan in November,” said Leila Elabed, campaign manager for Listen to Michigan. She added, “I hope the post-primary numbers are significant enough for Joe Biden to listen to Michigan.”
Ellabed and Listen to Michigan officials say most Democrats who protest Biden's Israel policy will support him in November as long as he changes course on the issue. claims. Other Michigan activists say Biden needs to go further and cut U.S. military aid to Israel. Armenian-American groups are also calling for an “irresponsible” vote to protest the treatment of Armenians living in Azerbaijan.
The question remains how many Democratic primary opponents will return to Biden in November, when he is expected to face Trump.
Andy Levin, a former Michigan congressman who supported and campaigned for the “no commitment” movement, said, “If Joe Biden changes course, he can get the majority of people to vote for him.'' I guess so.'' There's nothing I can do to get people to vote for him. ”
Will Nikki Haley find another small ray of hope?
Haley focused on the South Carolina primary for about a month, losing to Trump in her home state by just 20 percentage points, and arrived in Michigan without much momentum. Her biggest outside backer, the Koch political network, announced it was cutting off support for her.
Michigan has an open primary system, and like other states, Democrats could vote for Ms. Haley, but given the large amount of attention focused on Ms. Biden's performance in the primary, Haley He may not be able to count on that. Kind of like this support.
Still, the primary could be Haley's high point in Michigan, as most of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention will be honored at the party's convention, scheduled for Saturday. Convention delegates tend to be more enthusiastic about Mr. Trump than the broader Republican primary field.
But this too is more complicated than it seems. A rift among Michigan Republicans has led to dueling conventions led by two people each claiming leadership of their party.
On the campaign trail in Michigan, Haley continues to insist that Trump will lose the general election, a move that “dedicated” supporters are predicting about Biden unless he changes course. The message is very similar. Israel-Gaza war.
Jazmin Ulloa Contributed to the report.