CNN
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson holds the fate of our democracy and our people in his hands.
Even if the next general election results in a new question about the survival of the constitutional system, the United States will not survive.
The country Johnson must save is Ukraine, two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared it had no right to exist and invaded it.
Trapped in World War I-like hellish trench warfare, Ukrainian soldiers are running out of bullets. There are signs that Russia is trying to break the stalemate and turn the war around.
Mr. Johnson was the benefactor last year who was the last choice to lead the rebellious House Republican majority and could help ease Ukraine's suffering and ensure its survival as an independent state in the coming days. . He is likely to allow a vote on a bill that includes $60 billion in aid the Pentagon claims will allow Kiev to continue fighting effectively. It will likely pass with a bipartisan majority.
Louisiana Republicans' reluctance to do so reflects the growing power of Republican front-runner Donald Trump, the party's sharp pivot away from its globalist democratic traditions, and possibly funding for Ukraine's defense. It's a comment on his criticism of perhaps even his own ambitions since borrowing Democratic votes for the Democratic Party. There is a possibility that he will be deprived of the lecture position.
The multiple crises that had been postponed due to the young chairman's position have suddenly come to a boil, and the chairman is under extreme pressure in many areas both domestically and internationally. Without an immediate budget deal with Senate Democrats, the government could enter a partial shutdown by the end of the week.
His predicament will be highlighted Tuesday at a White House meeting of the top four leaders of Congress convened by President Joe Biden.
The quiet state of Louisinan has seen growing opposition to further aid to Ukraine among Republicans, especially the pro-Trump wing of McCarthy's conference, who are hoping to hang on to office longer than his ill-fated predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. , besieged. But Mr. Johnson's lonely dilemma becomes more acute as his administration appoints him the only person who can thwart or enable President Putin's efforts to wipe Ukraine off the map. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sternly warned in an interview with CNN's Caitlan Collins that his country cannot succeed in defeating Russia without aid. Foreign governments, concerned that the Western coalition against Russia could collapse without U.S. funding and influence, are calling on the speaker to take action. And the pressure on Zelenskiy's forces, facing defeat on the battlefield, threatens to shift the blame onto the Republicans unless desperately needed weapons are sent to the front lines soon.
It's a daunting situation for a speaker who emerged from obscurity just a few months ago and lacks the experience, vote-counting tools and influence needed to woo the Republican majority.
So far, Mr Johnson has shown little evidence that he has the political skills to extricate himself from a dangerous position. But even the masters of parliamentary muscle flexibility may struggle with such weak hands. His narrow majority means he only needs to lose a few votes among Republicans to pass the bill, giving extremist lawmakers significant leverage. The reality is that there are. The fate of Mr. McCarthy, who was ousted by his own side last year, raises daily questions about Mr. Johnson's ability to survive. The threat comes from the speaker's own far-right wing, which has become increasingly nationalist, populist and isolationist since being transformed by President Trump. A $60 billion aid package to foreign democracies is at odds with the former president's movement's credo to “Make America Great Again” and is opposed by a large swath of grassroots Republican voters.
So even if Prime Minister Johnson wants to rescue Ukraine, it may be politically impossible. Nothing can be guaranteed in a tight Congress, with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, making the United States close to ungovernable and threatening America's global leadership role.
Johnson will likely find himself on the back foot Tuesday. Joining him on the Oval Office couch will be House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, all of whom have announced plans for a rapid and large-scale invasion of Ukraine. I support sending funds.
“We have a strong bipartisan majority in the House of Representatives who are ready to pass this bill if it comes to a vote,” Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN's “State of the Union” on Sunday. It's done,” he said. “And that decision rests on the shoulders of one person. And history is watching whether Speaker Johnson moves that bill forward. If he does, it will pass and we will see Ukraine succeed.” Sullivan added, “If he doesn't do that, we won't be able to give Ukraine the tools it needs to stand up to Russia, and that's a big beneficiary.'' will be President Putin,” he added.
But the pressures Mr. Johnson faces in the White House will pale in comparison to the outrage he would evoke on Capitol Hill if he ceded to Mr. Biden. For some Republicans, passing a new aid package for Ukraine means that despite the reality that they have two-thirds of political power in Washington, far-right lawmakers have failed to make drastic spending cuts. It would be another major failure for a House majority that has repeatedly enraged the House of Representatives. Controlled by the Democratic Party.
Ukraine's fate is also hostage to President Trump's rise in political fortunes. The former president still resents his first impeachment, which was aimed at putting pressure on Zelenskiy's government, and appears to favor Putin over democracy during the conflict. He has not completely ruled out aid to Ukraine, but has warned that no more U.S. aid should be sent to Ukraine as the campaign centers on the crisis at the southern border. For example, he said in a Feb. 10 social media post that Ukraine, whose economy is in ruins, may not be able to repay the debt immediately, but that loans may be available. President Trump's plan sounded more like a for-profit plan than one to protect a country under attack. “We should never give money without expecting anything in return or without strings attached. The United States of America can no longer be “stupid”! ” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
House Republican leaders are holding firm on their stance that aid to Ukraine is not possible without a vigorous new effort to secure America's borders after record migrant encounters late last year. There is no doubt that there is a border crisis. But President Trump and House Republicans joined forces to kill a bipartisan Senate compromise that would have resulted in the most conservative executive reforms in years, an apparent move by former President Trump in an election year. This appears to be an attempt to steal victory from Biden.
However, the Republican Party's message becomes a centripetal force within the party. “So many people are sending billions of dollars to protect Ukraine,” Rep. Byron Donald of Florida, an ally of President Trump, said Sunday on NBC's “Meet the Press.” “And yet our country remains open.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has come under heavy criticism from President Zelenskiy, but he is becoming increasingly desperate as doubts about his ability to resist Putin's forces over the long term grow. Ukraine's president said in an interview with CNN that the president had previously promised support. “What can I do? I can't press the speaker. This is his decision. But I think he understands all the challenges we have,” Zelenskiy said.
“I have to trust you. But we'll see.”
Prime Minister Johnson also faces intense lobbying from leading figures in the Western alliance. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron met with the chairman in the US in December and told CNN that Washington was central to the entire war effort and that the money would make a “huge difference”. Since then, he has continued to support the policy, infuriating one of Trump's top supporters in the House of Representatives, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who said Lord British had said, He might even kiss my dick.''
Other friends of the United States have warned Prime Minister Johnson that if this bill is not passed, it will be a devastating blow to America's prestige and power abroad. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski implored Prime Minister Johnson to consider the consequences of further delaying the U.S. lifeline in Ukraine. “Mr. Chairman, I would like to say: Mr. Chairman, this is the fate of Ukraine, and what I am asking you to do is the tortured Ukrainian people, but it is your country that is at stake. It's also about reliability,” Sikorsky told CNN's “Fareed Zakaria GPS.” on sunday. “America's word has been spoken. We must continue to take action,” the minister said, noting that Biden risked America's credibility by visiting Kyiv last year.
Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton of Massachusetts told CNN on Monday after returning from a trip to Asia that America's allies will be closely monitoring Johnson's future actions because they will affect other U.S. adversaries. He said there was.
“It was surprising. Officials in both Taiwan and Japan were supremely focused on whether we would provide aid to Ukraine. It was the Chinese dictator who said he wanted to invade Taiwan, Because it would send a message to Xi Jinping,” Moulton said. he said on “CNN News Central.”
Even if persuasion doesn't sway Mr. Johnson, the pressure of events might. Ukrainian and US officials have already warned that ammunition shortages are causing territorial losses and increased casualties. If the inferior Ukrainians suffer a series of battlefield defeats and Putin's forces advance, the chairman and the Republican majority could be blamed for a crisis that could threaten NATO and involve the U.S. military. The possibility of fighting will increase.
“If the United States does not provide military aid, we will soon see significant gains from Russia,” American Enterprise Institute scholar Frederick Kagan said Monday. “If we don't provide any further support, it's very likely that by the end of this year we'll see the front start to move very rapidly towards the west.”
Johnson's conundrum is rooted in dangerous domestic politics, but it also has serious international implications. And there's no indication he knows how to solve it.