I've been modeling golf and betting on golf for quite some time, and the more I got this week, the more I've seen the expected score output between the leader and the rest of the field be this steep. It is no exaggeration to say that the model has never experienced this.
The 8.42 stroke difference between Jake Knapp and No. 2 predicted golfer Keith Mitchell is such a large difference that it may have taken longer than expected for the 29-year-old to make his mark on tour. However, the upside is now infinite. He will be here in 2024.
Most of that prediction comes from actual ball-striking returns, mixed into projected short game totals from a long-term baseline perspective. Knapp never finished outside the top four in ball striking in any of the three rounds, and his 14.04 shots into the field were 6.52 shots better than the next most famous player in the field. This return once again raised Mitchell's profile. into the equation.
We'll talk a little more about this Knapp surge in Mexico in the section below, but this is an event he should lose.
If you haven’t already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOfSports). There, we provide a link to the Pre-Tournament Model, a powerful, interactive data spreadsheet that allows you to create custom golf rankings with user input. This sheet is published every Monday, so be sure to check it out and create your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Mexico Open final round prediction
Jake Knapp +105 vs. Sami Valimaki (Fanduel)
We cannot say that this is generally a positive EV strategy. Betting on a player who has a four-shot lead over the No. 2 producer on the leaderboard heading into Sunday for the sheer fact that Knapp's strategy will likely need to change going into the final round. , is one of the spots to avoid. I haven't seen enough of him to vouch for whether that will be the case, but I still think the market is taking that reality too much at face value given the two elements of this equation.
First of all, Sami Valimaki isn't necessarily a well-conditioned PGA Tour player who has logged a lot of reps in the final group himself.victory in At the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters in October, he showed his ability to end matches from shotbacks. Still, having to recover a one-stroke deficit on a questionable field overseas versus doing it here and recovering a four-stroke deficit at a venue like Vidanta can be found when your game is a little off. There is a difference when jumping into all the pitfalls. .
There's no guarantee that Knapp will keep his end of the bargain, as pushing too hard will result in water contamination, but I'm willing to bet on a higher ceiling due to the sheer aggression Valimaki would need if he wanted to. / Thinking of having a lower floor. Win the event.
The second important factor is what happens when you throw these two names into the same head-to-head matchup Saturday vs. Sunday. I understand that the final round tax has to be considered for golfers who have never won on tour and will have to go through a new situation if they want to come home from Mexico with a win. But at what point does my exact price -140 not factor into value when FanDuel puts his price 45 points higher because he's more than 4 strokes behind?
Can Knapp promise to continue playing as clean as he has throughout three rounds? no. Still, even if he fails and doesn't win the tournament, there is a route to beating Valimaki. There are also additional avenues for him to stagger and remain stable enough to win while covering up Valimaki as he swoops across the board.
This is not as simple as the books say about this bet. You can accept the fact that my price estimate of -140 needs some reduction to account for final round factors. However, the 45-point shift doesn't accurately summarize that story either.
I'm betting Knapp will continue to hit historic balls against golfers who are currently 22 spots higher on the leaderboard than my model predicted based on the way he's been hitting the ball so far this week. I would like.
There is no other way. The positive numbers made me wonder if that's what the book wanted.
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