With Stefan Jaeger's 50-1 pre-event instant wager in his pocket heading into Sunday, he'll need to defeat a formidable opponent in Scottie Scheffler to get his ticket across the finish line.
What Scheffler did this week is become the first player in history to rank No. 1 in every evaluable category in my model by competing in back-to-back Arnold Palmer Invitationals and Players Championships. It seems like it's not that difficult since it's just that. tournament when diving into this week's Texas Children's Houston Open.
Unfortunately, the concerns don't end there, and after failing to finish within the top 15 in any round in ball-striking marking, Jaeger's three-day scoring predictions are more showy than glamorous. . Normally, these concerns would hit you as the pressure mounts in the fourth round of competing for the title, but I don't think the 4th place weighted scorer in the model's pre-event will find what he needs in his game. I also have expectations from outside. Sunday to defeat Goliath.
I mean, who would have thought Buster Douglas would knock out Mike Tyson?
If you haven’t already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOfSports). There, we provide a link to the Pre-Tournament Model, a powerful, interactive data spreadsheet that allows you to create custom golf rankings with user input. This sheet is published every Monday, so be sure to check it out and create your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Houston Open
Chan Kim -110 vs. Martin Laird (DraftKings)
My model is that most of the intrigue surrounding Chang Kim stems from his tournament-leading 4.63 tee and approach performance in the second round, which helped him get through the weekend. I'm a little worried that this might be the case. But I'm going to ignore those concerns because of Martin Laird's bottom-three portfolio prediction in his first three days of the Houston Open.
Laird joins Joseph Bramlett and Harry Hall as one of only three players in the field to beat their expected scoring performance by 25 or more on the leaderboard every time they teed it up this week.
The short-game return isn't too shocking for Laird, as he has seen an uptick over the past 24 rounds both around the greens and with the putter relative to baseline. Still, it always raises a red flag when someone beats his short game baseline by 4.31 strokes.
Combine this with the actual ball striking and short game baseline results, plus the 5.78 stroke difference in scoring between Laird and Kim, who might have been listed pretty well at -110 before the event. You can get your stake here. Looking at the “fair market value” heading into Sunday, we see a change of almost 16 points.
This bet gives me an implied probability of winning of 3.07% and I end the week with what my calculations suggest would be 55.75% to win round 4.
A must-have app for golf bettors
best golf betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probability for bets
What do you think of this article?